My (NEXT) EUR/USD Short Trade

Discussion in 'Forex' started by sKaLpZ, May 13, 2005.

  1. Very good, analysis, MP$.

    With respect, I'll counter...

    "It's hard for a fixed system to keep up with.. broken rythm." - Bruce Lee

    Bruce had a lot of good and applicable things to say.

    USD was pretty strong last month, everything that rise up must stop and reverse.

    True about the USD. Not true about the rest when it comes to fx as far as trader profitibility goes.

    GBP dropped far too much. Look for bounce.

    It did drop. I got a GBP position sitting over 10-cents down.

    Too far? Maybe, maybe not. Looking for a bounce may dry out your eyes... and your account.

    JPY looks like it will make a lower-high, although this one is hard to tell.

    There's no way to tell. My thought is, yen will weaken more before it strengthens. Brace for a test of 109.00

    EUR prefectly hit my 66% fibonnacci retracement. I'll call that strong support.

    FR is so popular. Some guys swear by it. I take the stance that there is simply nothing that can accurately predict future moves of forex rates. But if Fibs work for you, that's the main thing.

    Oil looks like it will make higher-low too.

    Oil's been all over the place. It can just as easily jet back up to previous highs as it can fall at this point. Brace for extremes.

    (*doing my best to sound like a Chinese fortune cookie. Maybe I can get a job as one.*)

    Can't drop too much below 48$, i can't believe it.

    Of course it can. Change your beliefs.

    Another rise in oil price possible, meaning another crash in USD.

    Yes, an oil rise is possible. It doesn't mean another crash in the dollar.

    You seem good to sell the bottom coinz :D

    Did I? Or did I buy USD at the top?? :D

    Just one thing, i prefer taking a small position instead of no position at all. Always stay in the market.

    It's probably a good trading tactic. Though for me, I'm only in the market when there's a reason to be.

    Trying to better my financial condition above cleaning windshields of cars stopped at traffic lights is a good enough reason.

    #11     May 23, 2005
  2. GBP bounce: was right
    EUR floor: was right
    JPY lower-high: was right! :)

    I know this is just short term and that doesn't mean anything. Funny thing i'm up EUR/USD, up GBP/USD and down EUR/GBP :)
    #12     May 24, 2005
  3. You're correct - all those calls were right!

    Very good, MP$.

    You be baaad. :D

    #13     May 24, 2005
  4. Damn!
    #14     May 26, 2005
  5. not much to report - not a bad week - I chased down a little profits in the tumble, now am about 50-pts in drawdown on the end-of-the-week spike.

    all-in-all I can't say I'm not satisfied - booking profits is always satisfying :D

    Trade pair: EUR/USD.
    Trade direction: Short.
    Trade structure: Variation of my DHT (Deep Hole Trading) system.
    Trade: 3 positions open.
    Current Average Price: 1.2537
    TP: 500-points.
    Trade Status: Live.

    #15     May 27, 2005
  6. intresting.

    i'm still short eur/usd from 1.2680. profit target 1.2440
    #16     May 27, 2005
  7. Don't get me wrong. I hope we have another 500 to 600 point retracement/climb like we did a few weeks ago.

    As, I also have a fairly large long trade going on with EUR/USD as well, and I'd like to dump it soon as I see dayliight so I don't end up taking a bath.

    At that point, euro can drop into Hell as far as I am concerned, but my 500-tic TP on the short isn't expected to be actually hit due to the euro dropping down 500 points below my current average of 1.2537, for the version of the DHT system being traded on the short has ways to raise its average price as the rate climbs. :cool:

    If she flies, blowing thru 1.3000 I'll be a happy camper in both cases.

    #17     May 27, 2005
  8. Still long avg price somewhere a little bellow 1.26.

    But, EUR did have it's first up-week in a LONG time, fellowing the modest drop of last week. Looks like a reversal.

    I hope another drop to 1.25 so i can average down agressively, then back up. 1.28 target! I'll be conservative on this one :D

    The key is when a new up-trend will kick-in. I'll pyramid-up to margin-call limits! :cool:
    #18     May 28, 2005
  9. Big day.
    I took this drop to average down once more. Now avg price @ 1.2556, long.

    Hedged myself vs other currencies which worked well. Cashed-in, now i have my hand on the trigger for this trade!

    It's going up starting right now!!!
    #19     May 30, 2005
  10. You play a dangerous game, man. :D

    One thing is certain, it's stopped tanking.
    #20     May 30, 2005