A lot of testosteron in this thread... Anyway, HC, could you clarify what exact criteria do you use when you decide to enter into your trades. Lets break it into two separate questions (a) how do you decide on the timing and level of vol? (b) how do you decide on the structure of the trade?
Of course Atticus has losses. I didn't realize how bad it was getting until I saw that he had to put his house up for sale. Probably underwater on his mortgage to Michael Corleone. http://www.forbes.com/2005/10/06/cx_sc_1007homeslide_4.html (It's slide number 4, I thought I could stop the slideshow but it insists.)
No. 4 (tie) Price: $60 million Location: Incline Village, Nev. A veritable playground on pricey Lake Tahoe, this 4.25-acre compound includes nearly 340 feet of shoreline. But water isn't Sierra Star's only amenity: If you add the 11,000-square-foot contemporary main house and the two guesthouses, you get a total of 18 bedrooms and 19 baths. The 16,000-square-foot âcarriage houseâ has a 60-foot-long elevator that can accommodate large vehicles. The sod on the grounds has rubber matting beneath, so it doesn't get ruined by all-terrain vehicles. And the two piers have remote-controlled lifts for easy boat launching. Kent Symons at Coldwell Banker Incline Village Realty has the listing.
I think there's a thread in the Journals section... There's also a lengthy thread on the T2W Forum dedicated to HC's methodologies.
Funny u guys think some free tool is giving you accurate probabilities of touching, not touching, having a ham sandwich, based on nothing more than some simple math programmed by a high schooler.
I took another weekly vertical position Monday morning. Short the 1230 puts, long the 1220's for a whopping .25 cent credit. Ok, stop laughing...
To many it has no value based on MG's discussion, but I did use the math I learned at the MIT of the Midwest.
No, just one third of my available funds. I'm a big chicken. Doesn't mean I won't get nervous if we break through 1250 by Thursday...
Ok, now that we mentioned schooling, let me make a couple points. First, lets clarify the actual trading style. You are not really selling volatility per se, you are trading the terminal distribution. My understanding is that your selection is based on the following criteria (a) proportion of the price of the spread to the width of the spread (b) probability of touching the higher stirke based on some measure (you have not explained how it works just yet) If you are using the implied volatility for the POT calculations, then you are creating a degenerate system - ratio of premium to the width of the spread is the indicator of probability of touching. If you are using probability of touching based on some other parameters (e.g. historical volatility, historical distributions etc), it would be a valid approach to capture alpha, albeit a very risky one.