My most recent winner

Discussion in 'Journals' started by mrmarket, Feb 3, 2003.

  1. Date: Fri Jan 24, 2003 1:27 pm
    Subject: LCI ==> The $$$MR. MARKET$$$ cold weather special

    Drugs drugs drugs, God I love drugs. Everyone in this country is on
    drugs, and the cheaper the drugs the better. Got worries about the
    economy?....get cheaper drugs. That's why today I bought LCI at
    $20.00. I will sell it in 4 – 6 weeks at 23.22. Here is why I like
    Lannett Company:

    Lannett Company, Inc. develops, manufactures, packages, markets and
    distributes pharmaceutical products sold under generic chemical
    names. In addition, it contract manufactures and private labels
    pharmaceutical products for other companies.

    LCI's stock is up over 500% in the last 12 months. While its P/E is
    a little pricey for me at 30.91, it's not high when you look at the
    revenue growth that Lannett has been experiencing recently. They
    chart has an R^2 of 0.78 for 12 months and 0.80 for 6 months.

    IBD rates LCI an A+ with a 99 rating.

    Last quarter, LCI reported A 124% increase in Net Sales for the First
    Quarter of Fiscal 2003 compared to the First Quarter of Fiscal 2002,
    and a 30% increase in Net Sales for the First Quarter of Fiscal 2003
    compared to the preceding quarter, the 4th Quarter of Fiscal 2002. A
    178% increase in Net Income for the First Quarter of Fiscal 2003
    compared to the First Quarter of Fiscal 2002, and a 28% increase in
    Net Income for the First Quarter of Fiscal 2003 compared to the
    preceding quarter, the 4th Quarter of Fiscal 2002. This kind of
    revenue growth means that LCI has tapped into a new vein of
    opportunity. Management supports the updated projections for 2003.
    All of this growth is occurring without much expansion of their fixed
    cost base.

    If LCI does only $0.19 a quarter (what it did last quarter) for the
    next 4 quarter, that would make its earnings $0.76/share which lowers
    its P/E to 26. However, it is likely that LCI's growth will continue
    through the year (small companies can grow rapidly). My guess is
    that they will come in at around at least $0.91/share. At today's
    P/E of 30, that will drive the stock price to $27.30, which is well
    exceeds my sell target.

    LCI's Return on Equity is! They have successfully reduced
    debt almost by half with their new cash flow. Return on Assets
    53%...return on Invested Capital 55%. Talk about a high performance

    While this play is a bit riskier than what I am normally used to,
    it's kind of fun to jump on a rocket every now and then.

    I am HUGE!!

    Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

  2. WHY didn't you buy at $10?!
  3. ALICE


    LCI, hmmmmm ... nice winner! :) Did you find this through your trading model?

    I really appreciate this.

    Thanks for the tip. Will do my DD now.

    Your friend,

  4. you didn't say where you'll get out to cut your losses....

    oh I forgot, you buy and hold. You're just a wannabe investor like 99% of the investor class. Sure you'll book the profit if it comes your way but you'll hold the loss indefinately...and if the worst comes to pass and your stock goes to .50 a share, what will you do then?

    You have no worst case scenerio plan. No detailed exit strategy for if the stock does not do as you say.
  5. placing it on my watch list... to sell short !
  6. Why can't he start his own thread, which he has tried to keep rather specific and trading oriented, and not be harassed in a personal way for it? If you think his trades and methods are worthless, then skip over his thread. Or at the very least respond with factual analytical criticism of his trading criteria, but not resort to personal insults.

    If it's all because he says he's huge and wants meats and cheeses, send a petition to the S.E.C. asking them to create a regulation banning any form of humor or self-mockery from any trading related activity. I'm sure they've already got such a proposal drawn up, and would appreciate your support during the Public Comment period to help them get it passed as a law.
  7. Mr. Market
    It sound like you did your due dilli on LCi but here's my question:

    Suppose you buy 1000 shares of it at 20.
    You are targeting 23 and change so that's a 3000 profit in six weeks.....with imminent war and other dangerous world events possible, why should one take the RISK in this market of holding a position overnight? Let's say for example that they report tonight on CNN that there was a terrorist bomb on the would be hurt big. Given the fact that this is a trading board for active traders, I would think most traders would rather go in and out for a few hundred bucks on a daily basis, knowing that it is in an upward trend as you say....wouldn't it behoove us to buy and sell a few times during the day and take NO overnight risk? 3000 / 6 weeks is only $500.00 per week....hardly seems worth the risk of 20,000 overnight in this political/economic and possibly war filled environment.
  8. Momento


    Love to short some real soon

  9. Curious...

    I'm not a day trader... although intend to do some futures trading fairly soon.

    Do you think the sentiment expressed above is the same in holding overnight shorts?
  10. that's about as poorly timed "phrasing" as i have seen in a long time, but good luck with your trade! :cool:
    #10     Feb 3, 2003