I haven't posted here much the last few months. I was ultra bearish for the most of 2008 while idiots like hedgefundtrader2 were bullish as hell, and most agreed with him. I do believe the huge selloff recently and market action today were interesting. My opinion is, were gonna make a short term bounce much higher soon, possibly starting tomorrow. Oil is coming down, the dollar is strengthening, the bailout package will start to have a large impact - particularly if they have the power to make direct equity injections into institutions in the financial sector. This will set a floor under many stocks and will empower people to take risks in buying them up. Two other factors: 1) Having the cme/ice as counterparty to derivative trades is HUGE, and 2) i don't think they will let stocks fall much further at all without a significant rate cut. Before, I didn't belive intervention would help at all since the problems were so dire. However, the aforementioned measures the fed is currently taking are very drastic, and the combination of an already 40% drop from peak in indices, and worldwide understanding and possible help to solve current problems (through their own measure in their respective countries,) set the backdrop for a big rally. Just my .02
Btw, by short-term i mean 3 months, or about by year end. By then, I definitely expect stocks to be trading higher than they are now. Politically, I think the market will just be happy to have some new leadership, be it mccain or obama. i won't get political here right now. either one will be viewed positively short-term.
buy the market here, you tools. bernanke gonna speak soon, it's gonna have a positive effect on the market. market is a couple hundred points from a short term bottom, if not here.