My longshot is

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by CaptainObvious, Mar 8, 2007.

  1. In my modest mouse opinion you guys are going to the same horses too many times.

    Today is Tuesday.

    Pre morning buying imbalance on VION....
    They present tomorrow someone is placing a big bet.
    Vol 8 mil vs 1. something mil. There was an insider buy
    March 13 @ $1.59 lends support. I put JUST INTO WIFE's IRA I DID NOT BUY**** ALERT**** you all know what happens after that! This should be $4 by Thursday! ~ stoney
     
    #241     Apr 24, 2007
  2. I understand your point Stoney, but sometimes it's best to ride the "horse" you know best until another good one comes along. So long as I keep making money on these, I'll keep trading them. ANX, KLAG, ABAT, and COR all up strong today and this week. While we're looking for the next derby winner, we'll take what the market gives us. :D

    And VION looks like a good probable for tomorrow if it holds up. Thanks for the "HOT TIP".:cool:
     
    #242     Apr 24, 2007
  3. I'm not tellin' no one what to do here, but watch NNRF tomorrow. It went all the way to 10.09 today and then retraced to 8.96. My prediction is that it will retrace some more, not right away, to the mid eights and then head north again and pass that 10.09 by another two bits.

    I came real close to gettin' out of COR. Looks like tomorrow is the day.

    And if it's a really busy day I'll get my price on SWEB.

    Cap'n, that ALAN is a scary sonofabitch!
     
    #243     Apr 24, 2007
  4. You got it Captain'-- if they're working great! tax time don't come a calling for those cost basis' though... The symbols are so darn confusing. I like simple symbols like ANAD. It's easy to remember it sounds like Gonad.
    re: VION
    Yes I'm a hoping for some big news tomorrow -- so apparently are a bunch of other people --
    We'll have to be nimble on the sell side....
     
    #244     Apr 24, 2007
  5. 03-09-07 03:03 AM

    CHCG....China 3C group .....Only time I ever mentioned it was back in Aprill of 2006 on this forum......My OTC play since a repurchase back in September....Yea they retail MP3 and MP4 and DVD players and electronics in 800 locations in China and have plans to move into Shanghai this year....Just acquired 2 competitors over the last 6 months....Do your own DD, but the volume spiked today!!!!

    And closed at the high of the day.....I took 20% off the table, but no telling where It may go......I would advise one to go look at the last 10 K for 2006 just posted in late Feb......Enough said!!!!

    HIGH RISK OF COURSE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    $COSTAverageMAN


    Well for a long shot CHCG hasn't been one that doubled in a week, but it sure didn't fall off a cliff and has moved a nice 14% since I mentioned it in the section, The savy investor could of pulled out a quick 33% since April 18th( That's 5 trading days).....Now that is more what I like to see from a longshot from China that sounds and acts pretty legit...

    $COSTAverageMAN
     
    #245     Apr 24, 2007
  6. Well since I wasn't impressively successful with CHCG...I figure I would mention ABAT....Another OTC China play that is a part of the anomaly that is on the move....

    $COSTAverageMAN
     
    #246     Apr 24, 2007
  7. The company is giving guidance of $181 million in total revenues, and $14.4 million in net income, or $.27 earnings per share, for the fiscal year ending Dec. 31, 2006.

    The Company anticipates it will have 2,000 employees sometime in 2007, and should achieve around a fifty percent (50%) increase in revenues from the sale of cell phones during fiscal 2007.

    The Company also is forecasting that by 2010 the company plans to expand operations to all of China, and have operations in around 4,000 stores and achieve revenues of around $1 billion. To achieve these goals the Company believes it should grow 30% per year intrinsically, and 50% via acquisitions. The Company anticipates that acquisitions will be achieved via cash from operations and outside financing.


    VALUATION RATING

    With China 3C Group projecting ‘intrinsic’ growth of around 30% per year, and 50% growth in revenues for fiscal 2007, it’s in Ludlow China Fund’s opinion that a 30 price to earnings (PE) would be fair, if not conservative. If you give CHCG a PE of 30, based on a projected EPS for fiscal 2006 of $0.27 per share, we get a price target valuation of $8.10 a share.

    >> This as of feb- so numbers are higher will do the math later and find out new price target.

    >>


    Initial Research Report
    Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

    China 3C Group Rating: Speculative Buy
    Juan Noble
    CHCG $6.38 — (OTC BB) March 9, 2007
    FY2006A FY2007E FY2008E
    Total revenues (in millions) $148.2 $412.0 $612.0
    Earnings per share
    FY2005A
    $32.6
    $0.04 $0.24 $0.56 $0.88

    52 - Week range $7.50 – $1.00 Fiscal year ends: December
    Shares outstanding as of December 31, 2006 52.5 million Revenue/share (ttm) $2.82
    Approximate float 7 million Price/Sales (ttm) 2.26
    Market Capitalization $335 million Price/Sales (FY2007)E 0.81
    Tangible Book value/share $0.20 Price/Earnings (ttm) 26.1X
    Price/Book 31.6X Price/Earnings (FY2007)E 11.4X

    China 3C Group. (OTC BB: CHCG), headquartered in HangZhou City in China’s Zhejiang Province, is a distributor and retailer of consumer
    electronic products. The company’s retail market, through which it generates more than half of its revenue, is East China, which it services through
    a chain of 800 stores concentrated mainly in Shanghai and the neighboring provinces of Jiangsu and Zhejiang.

    Key Investment Considerations:

    We are initiating coverage of China 3C Group (OTC BB: CHCG) with an investment rating of Speculative Buy
    and a 12-month price target of $8.50 per share. We believe that because of the risk and uncertainty underlying
    China 3C’s growth prospects, the stock is suitable only for investors with a high risk for tolerance.

    China 3CGroup is expanding rapidly, its growth driven by organic growth, the opening of new stores, and
    acquisitions. We believe that even without acquisitions, the company could increase its revenue fourfold and
    its net income fivefold during the next two years. An aggressive expansion effort aims to expand its retail
    chain to 4,000 stores and raise its revenue to one billion dollars by 2010.

    The company’s consumer electronics product line includes well-known international brands, as well as lower-
    cost ones that enable China 3C to offer a broad selection across a wide range of price points. A unique
    “stores-in-stores” organization enables the company to piggy back on other retailers’ traffic, blunt the
    potential competitive edge of large-store broad-line retailers and avoid large capital expenditures.

    The company’s trading area is concentrated in the densely populated eastern coastal provinces of Jiangsu and
    Zhejiang, and in the city of Shanghai. These markets, the largest in China, account for more than one-fifth of
    the nation’s gross domestic product and roughly the same proportion of its wholesale and retail trade.

    We project strong cash flow that should enable the company to support substantial increases in working capital
    and amass large cash reserves that could cover a large portion of its acquisition financing requirements.

    >> Looks real good $COST I remember when you posted this my problem was the quality of the real estate-- they don't own very much lots of store within stores and kiosks but hey what the F I'm over that! ~ stoney
     
    #247     Apr 25, 2007
  8. Seeking Alpha mentions:
    the fact that CHCG has already filed and is awaiting approval from larger exchanges. They have brought on highly qualified auditors and have also performed up to investors expectations for the last 4 quarters. However with the risk of it still being an OTC stock (which it won't be for long), it seems fair to give it a twelve month price target of $9.50-$10.

    The CHCG board has not reported the 2007 guidance yet but the Taglich Brothers report has estimated it at .56 per share. I would rather take a more conservative approach and estimate it to be in the .50 to .52 for macro economic reasons such as the anticipated slowing down of the Chinese economy and possible introduction of a capital gains tax in china. This will directly effect the Chinese consumers spending capability once it ripples through the economy and therefore translates into less electronic/unnecessary purchases. Though I don’t seeing it be extremely large of an effect, I just would prefer to be cautious.

    Now when factoring in a .50-.52 with a modest P/E of 20, it translates to a $10 pps.
     
    #248     Apr 25, 2007
  9. ABAT and KALG continue onward and upward. 1000 shares of VION for shits and giggles. I'll blame Stoney if it's a loser.:D

    Edit: BTW the miserable prick MM's wouldn't fill my SWEB order at 1.22 yesterday. Bastards!
     
    #249     Apr 25, 2007
  10. Wild ride on VION. Hold me Stoney, I'm scared.:eek: Actually added more on the dip. Averaged in @1.98. We'll see how it goes from here.
     
    #250     Apr 25, 2007