My Litany Of Mistakes - Leaving FAT $$$ on the Table

Discussion in 'Trading' started by ByLoSellHi, Dec 5, 2006.

  1. I think it pretty well proves that none of us are very good at picking tops. We would like to think so, but it very rarely is the case. As long as you followed your system you did the right thing, but you can always try to improve that system.
     
    #11     Dec 5, 2006
  2. S2007S

    S2007S


    I had QLD at 67-68 and sold if for a small gain...now look at it 90+++

    PATHETIC.
     
    #12     Dec 5, 2006
  3. S2007S

    S2007S

    buy low everyone has had that problem before. Dont feel so bad, as long as you made out with a profit is all that matters.
     
    #13     Dec 5, 2006
  4. Once again, not necessarily true. Successful trading is not about "making out with a profit." It is about maximizing your trading capital. Leaving a huge profit on the table is worse than having a small loss, becaue overtime, those big profits are going to be the ones making you successful or not. The small profits and, if you are disciplined, the small losses will offset each other. It is only good business for your broker.
    Be careful with those cliches: Nobody gets broke by taking a profit. That would be only true if there were no losses !
     
    #14     Dec 5, 2006
  5. Scaling in and out of positions is something I should probably do in the future.

    And guys, getting back into a position after the stock starts running again is one of the most difficult things for me to to do psychologically - I always feel like I've lost out on x % of gain rather than looking at the upside potential.

    This is especially true if the stock is volatile.
     
    #15     Dec 5, 2006
  6. dhpar

    dhpar

    seems like you are trading single stocks.
    well if you think that market is up too much in short time sell index against it (and keep your POS). in other words keep alpha, hedge beta.... I think moral of the story should be do not run risk you do not fell comfortable with - if only I always followed that simple rule...
     
    #16     Dec 5, 2006
  7. You guys are pure comedy.

    Oh sure, we all could have bought and held Hansens from when it was 50 cents to where its at today, but if we just hadnt taken any profits then we could be millionaires by now. All those guys on the Yahoo message board have been holding Hansens from when it was 50 cents and sure, they never once took anything off the table.

    Its amazing how all these guys on these message boards can seemingly predict tops and bottoms and always make the perfect trades.

    Look at the charts and do what makes sense to you. Dont worry if you got out too soon. Just be happy with your profit. There will always be another day to make money.

    Now if there is a recession next year and a sudden correction, are you going to come back on here and say "Im sure glad I took some profits".

    Take your cash off the table when it makes sense to you and then find another stock(s) to sink it into. Dont worry if you got out too soon, these things can be unpredictable...
     
    #17     Dec 5, 2006
  8. Im going to list a few stocks that you know so well:

    Hansens
    Yahoo
    Red Hat
    Whole Foods

    I guess we could go on and on with the list, but those are just four off the top of my head. If you were in those stocks at the beginning of the year and didnt sell, then you would be out a lot of cash by now. There are quite a few stocks like that actually.

    The moral of the story is that you are seeing the glass half full right now, but there is another part of the glass that is hiding itself right now.

    You absolutely must practice risk management. I liked one guy's routine where he would have 100,000 and then bring it up to 130,000 then take 30,000 off the table and then keep going with the 100000.
     
    #18     Dec 5, 2006
  9. dhpar

    dhpar

    I think you are onto something....
     
    #19     Dec 5, 2006
  10. scaling out is how i get around the "selling the winners too early" vs. the "letting a winner turn into a loser" paradox.

    simply put, take profits at logical points and then use a trailing stop to stay in as long as possible on your last lot

    it's not perfect, but it works well for my methodology. smooths my equity curve, frequnetly keeps me in for larger moves (but not wiht optimal size) etc.

    it's called trading, and it's frequently about tradeoffs

    today for example, i bot corn (mar 07) at 372 372 1/2 372 3/4 (4 contracts total)

    i scaled out the first 3 contracts as it rose, with limit orders

    but i managed to save the last contract and am still in

    im normally a scalper, but if the action keeps me in the trade, that's fine

    i woul dhave made WAY more money if i held all 4 contracts to 378, but i had no idea of knowing it would move this far
     
    #20     Dec 5, 2006