lobster, there are opportunities right now. right now it's still possible to be pulling in BIG bucks day trading. i don't happen to think it's particularly probable, but a way could be found to do it, no doubt about that at all. but i really doubt whether the ones doing it are people that just came into the game in the last year. i think it's much more likely taht people that can finds ways to exploit these market conditions will be people that have had a good few years under their belts. and that, i think, is a different situation to what you had back in the boom days, where a newer trader had a far better chance of being able to 'get it' rather soon. so, sorry to sound kind of extreme in my views, but it's something i'd been mulling over the past month or two. i was already well aware of what i consider daytrading's negative aspects, but i feel like i'd been being kind of deluding myself by extrapolating my current performance into the future and thinking day trading's the way to go. obviously i no longer feel that way. we certainly COULD have another daytrading boom. in fact, i'm almost certain we will. but i wouldn't expect it happen in the next year or two (or three). and i'm utterly convinced the dow will, someday, go over 11,000 again, but again, i don't see it happening in the next year or three. (and, hmm, yeah, i would consider someone that thinks 11k is more likely than 5k in the next year or so to be just a bit of an idiot ) so, what you've said COULD occur, but in the meantime, you need to live. can you (not YOU, personally) really afford to sit around waiting for the good times to come back? (there's no guarantee they will). i find it doubtful. on the other hand, with paid employment, and a multiday strategy in the works, you can easily wait for opportunities to come your way, rather than 'forcing' them, as we daytraders often find ourselves doing. (and then going off and lamenting about the market as the source of our frustrations) ps - as for a 'double bubble', i suppose anything is possible, but given that we've seen one before, i'd say it's unlikely. (maybe the 98-00 peak-trough-peak could pass as that?)
GG, actually you sound a bit like me. There is a part of you that doesn't want to trade. You know what you need to do and have the advice/resources to help, but you won't do it. There is something about being a successful trader that a part of you doesn't like (eg. fewer opportunities to meet people). It's trying to protect you from that and sabotaging your efforts to trade well. You either need to find another outlet for that part of you (what does that part really want?) or quit trading. Until his needs are met, he'll never let you be profitable. Interesting that you keep coming back to this board periodically. That's the part that's sabotaging. He wants what you're getting from here. There's my 1 cent's worth of pop psychology.
GG, Hang in there bud. Here are a couple of reposts from a different thread (The Trader's Block thread) from Wednesday which I think apply here. It's just a very difficult market now. Don't let it defeat you. ------------------------------------------------- FWIW I find this a difficult market to get a handle on and I've been trading a lot less myself as have many of the other traders I hang out with. Also I sense that many of the traders I do hang with that have maintained their levels of trading seem to be wrong more often in their trades. Spreads are tight, the trend has been down for the most part but there's a lot of tight range chop especially after the first hour or so. And today (Wed.), as we saw there was a big time intraday bounce which was mostly short covering it seems. So take your time and choose your spots or as some have suggested take a break and don't trade at all for a while and just get away from the market. But I do agree also with most of what's been said here. If you do trade, trade smaller and also don't discount your sense of caution in difficult conditions. One doesn't need to trade all the time. Sometimes it does make more sense to just sit on your hands. ----------------------------------------------- I probably spend about 12 hrs a day on average doing this and I hang out during the day in several trading rooms with hundreds of other traders and that's what I sense. As you say, if you don't have a strong sense of what's up in the market then it just becomes gambling and I for one am not interested in that. As they always say, "If you want to gamble, go the Las Vegas. The food's better." We'll hopefully get out of this directionless, trendless funk soon and trading will be easier and more predictable again. Hang in there kid. PS Happy they found Elizabeth Smart alive and well. Puts things in perspective.
That is very true. And as a matter of fact, I have to ask myself if I personally can afford to wait for the good times to come back. But the decision is a little easier when I look at the current job market, especially down here in Florida. But I have actually been shifting my resources more and more away from trading and toward my "trinket retail business". Better return on investment lately...
GG I understand where you coming from. I have similar problems, haven't been profitable for past year. Problem? Since you got mechanics down, rest it's in your head. Solution? Who knows. Most people here gave you good advice. Don't just take it, FOLLOW IT THROUGH. And I mean everything - cut your size, pick one or few stocks and trade them exclusively, be DISCIPLINED (e.g. cut losses, etc.), get some good exercise and 7-8 hour sleep. You do this, and it will happen. Books? Most are worhtless. Since your (and mine) problem is more psychological now, read "Disciplined Trader", "Dancing with Lions". "Mind of a trader". things like that. Reading "Market Wizzards" or any other book that tells stories about people who made billions during 70s and 80s when market was full of holes and edges - won't help you a bit. Good luck!
GG, you are cursed(bless?) with a common disease called 'average' you are following the path of 90% population who are trying to make it to the 10% , you are the 'face' for that majority whose idea and though are same as yours. The silver lining is most of your thread should started by a 40 plus year old not someone as young as you. edit: this is my 1k post
I think Huios nailed it.. Also, it might be possible that subconsiously you know that if you go back to work you will meet and be around more people.. self sabotage is a powerful thing.. i recently decided to get a day job and trade european futures in the early morning hours.. its amazing how much easier it is to be objective now that i dont worry about the money.. good luck -qwik
GG, You have the same misconceptions that many novice traders have, including myself at one time. Hopefully I don't sound too bombastic or evasive, but here's what your doing wrong and some suggestions. 1) You think that you're going to find a system that quickly takes you from novice to expert. There's an analogy to playing a musical instrument well, in playing the market well. You're not going to play Tchaikovsky with a year's practice, or even five. There are many, many days, weeks and years that need to be spent in learning, practicing, refining your skills. If you can't pull it together yet, it still can be done, but not without much effort. You can complain about not performing well, but nothing will replace the effort it takes to get there. If you have the analytical, mechanical, and intuitive skills, you can get there. 2) If you have a system that's failing you, you have a faulty system or one that's not comprehensive enough. Spend time analyzing the complexities of the market (and they are many.) When you realize the market doesn't respond to your system, evaluate all of the variables exhaustively because you're missing something. The market exhibits a psychology of it's own, but will only reveal itself through brutal analysis. The successful traders have made this endeavor and are unlikely disclose it and may not be able to articulate it to your liking. 3) Without sounding too esoteric, the market acts as a living barometer of crowd psychology. While the market's and people's behavior may seem random, there is more determinism than not. If you can't tune yourself into it, your system is incomplete. 4) To paraphrase Einstein; Make things as simple as possible, but no simpler. i.e., If you think you're going to find the answer in some simple TA, ignoring the other variables, you're mistaken. When I started, I was enamored with TA, but it is only part of the equation and some of it is totally worthless. 5) Sometimes the market sends us noise and sometimes clear signals. Learn to differentiate. Don't force trades when they're not there. 6) Some patterns repeat, over and over and over. If you don't see them, you haven't paid your dues. 7) If you're not improving and you aren't analyzing your strategies, you'll never get any better. 8) The market is probabilistic, as is human behavior. This precludes perfect analysis of all situations. You need to recognize this and design your strategy around probabilities that consider a number of variables that aren't easily quantified. Here's where the intuition and experience rules. Spend your time, pay your dues and analyze, analyze, analyze. Eventually, things will start to come together enough to bring you into that 20% of profitable traders. Good Luck and Big Profits