Hey Slugar, thanks! I try to find a balance between asking enough questions to seem engaged and interested, but on the other hand I try not to ask too much as to make sure I don't seem like I'm asking for something for nothing or that I don't want to put in the work myself. But you're right, I'm very grateful and thankful for all the help and advice that I have received so far. I've learned a lot already! Edit: RN thanks!
I didn't have a good day today again. The first trade was a short. The market broke through an area I considered to be support, and it looked like it was pausing for a moment before going lower, so I entered short. Unfortunately, I was stopped out. For the second trade, the market broke out a bit, and it passed through some resistance and paused near 4000. It looked like we were heading higher, so I went long. Unfortunately I was also stopped out on this trade. I'll be honest guys, I'm feeling fairly discouraged today. I'm trying to do the 'right' thing by going with the trend and trying for larger moves and being patient, but it seems I'm getting punished here. I hate to say it, but I almost think I should go back to taking 1-3 pt gains, because that's the only type of trading that I seem to have marginal success with. I suppose the only way that type of trading could work is if I kept my losses to 1-3 points as well. I don't know, I'm just venting and thinking out loud here. I know taking the larger moves is the way to go, I'm just a little frustrated. RN said it yesterday, sometimes the market penalizes you and sometimes it rewards you for doing the same thing. It seems that last week every single entry I had I could have had 10 points if I had just held longer, while this week I'm taking the same entries and I'm getting shut down nearly every time. Today's results: 2 trades, 2 losses 1st: -5.00 2nd: -3.00 Net P/L -$167.56
Relax and look at your entries. You're very late to each party, as Handle mentioned in his post. Check out my posts on k p's journal from just a while ago. Look at your first entry. You're getting in just a few ticks from the low. You have nothing to "work" with, low airspace is how I put it. When I enter, I like there to be a place for price to go. I don't want to run directly into "chart resistance" (a level where there's extremely low risk for the other side to support price holding there). If your entry is just ticks from a low and counter-trend traders can buy there with a tiny stop loss, you're at a disadvantage unless there's a solid breakout. Better to get positioned further ahead of the test of low, closer to 77, so you can bail quickly if the low doesn't break. Now look at your second trade. You're entering after a measured move has already transpired. Not that price can't continue to run, but once again your entry allows no room for escape if price doesn't break to new highs. Now look back at the sloppy consolidation range between 10:10 and 10:30. Price puts in a higher low and a failed break thru the range high, then comes right back to the higher low. If the higher low holds and price turns again in the direction of that FBO, there will a nice squeeze into where all those stops are now sitting. Look for a place to enter ahead of the range high that offers enough airspace to be able to bail if the range holds and allows for limited risk. I traded there, deciding to buy 89 because at that point the squeeze setup was forming nicely following the "tease" (the FBO) and I was comfortable with a 5-pt stop off that entry. By entering early for a break out of the range, or even entering as the second mouse above the FBO high following the higher lows, you have plenty of room for a 2x reward based on a measured move target around 98. If this makes sense to you, scroll your charts to the hard right edge, capture the setups as they evolve and learn to recognize them like a best friend.
Thanks ND, you're right, my entries leave a lot to be desired! Thank you for this. That really makes sense to me when you put it that way and it makes me now look at that in a different way. And that makes a lot of sense, where I'm entering I'm giving myself no airspace at all. There is a lot of info in here, and I just want to make sure I'm understanding what you're saying. So you're saying that when price came back to the higher low(10:16 bar), that move enticed many people to go short. All those people who went short would likely have stops at the top of the range (~3990). So it's all those stops that create the squeeze which propels price out of the range above 3990. Intuitively that makes sense, and if I'm understanding that right then it also gives me something else to consider and makes me look at things in a slightly different way. I'm sorry ND, I just want to make sure I'm understanding what you mean by that. So you mean this second mouse entry above the first breakout high after the higher low? So this would be an entry roughly around the 10:18-10:23 bars?
Just incase ND isn't able to get back to you soon, I think this is how I'm reading what she is saying. The range is as outlined. The first higher low is just at the beginning of the box, right on the left, but then inside the box in the middle is yet another higher low. The FBO is quite tiny, but nevertheless a failed attempt to go higher. But when it comes down, it doesn't even come down to the previous lows, stopping at only half way down in the range. This I think makes the next attempt higher a high probability, which it clearly was based on those strong bulls bars! If ND enters at 89, her stop is the lows of those last set of higher lows, roughly around 84 to give the 5 point stop loss.
^ Hey thanks k p, that sounds right! Thanks for taking the time to make that. I guess looking at my trading results the last couple of days it's not surprising I had it wrong! lol
You're very welcome. I do love doing post analysis. Everything in your journal is a learning experience for me as well!
What she said, he said, he said....am confused, LOL We all have our own ideas on how to trade, all have formed our trading plans, best when markets are closed is test out when others show, this way YOU learn it in your own mindset. Some can stay with trades going for bigger trades as that suits their personalities and others-three minutes is a lifetime.