Yeah, great point! I’ll definitely check out Meetup and LinkedIn. If nothing fits, starting something myself could actually be a solid idea. In-person networking often brings insights you wouldn’t get on your own. Appreciate the tip
Trading Plan General Information Trading Pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, XAU/USD Chart Preparation Mark Points of Interest (POI) for all traded currency pairs. Set alerts for key levels on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and EUR/GBP. Avoid constantly watching the chart. Risk Management Fixed 1% risk per trade. Do not increase position size in an uncertain macro environment. Pre-Trading (Preparation) News & Macro Checks Check the economic calendar and scheduled news for USD, EUR, and GBP. Calculate USD Score, EUR Score, and GBP Score. Evaluate the Gold Sentiment Meter and market direction for GBP/USD. Technical Analysis & Trend Assessment HTF Check: Review H4 and D1 timeframes for trend direction and key zones. Compare EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and EUR/GBP trends – Look for synchrony or divergences. Trade Decisions Based on Macro Data Bullish Macro Picture: Prioritize long setups. Bearish Macro Picture: Focus on short setups. GBP/USD: Pay close attention to BoE rate decisions and UK economic data. EUR/GBP: Trade when divergences between EUR and GBP data appear. Risk Management for GBP/USD & EUR/GBP Stronger Macro Signals: Allows for larger position sizes. Unclear Macro Environment: Apply conservative risk management. GBP/USD & EUR/GBP: Short- and long-bias must align with Macro and USD Scores. Entry and Trade Management Rules Entry Details LL or HH confirms a trend shift. In-Trend Trading: No second HH/LL required – first confirmation is enough. Trend Expansion: HL/LH formation is not necessarily required to touch a premium/discount level after an HH/LL. GBP/USD Entry Rules: Combine LIQ spikes and FIB retracements. EUR/GBP Entry Rules: Avoid entries in tight range-bound conditions Long if EUR strength or GBP weakness dominates. Short if GBP strength or EUR weakness is evident. Exit Strategies & Take-Profit Rules Fixed CRV EUR/USD: 1:3 remains unchanged. Fixed CRV XAU/USD: 1:2 remains unchanged. GBP/USD: 1:3 for larger moves, 1:2 in uncertain macro conditions. EUR/GBP: 1:2 standard due to the pair's tighter price fluctuations. Break-even adjustment after a 0.5 FIB retracement or strong counter move. During Trading Check confirmations: LIQ spikes, trend analysis, FIB retracements. Set TradingView alerts for important POIs. Avoid impulsive trading before major news events! Post-Trading (Review & Analysis) Journal entries: Record why a trade worked or failed. Macro Bias Review: Did the macro analysis confirm the trade? Analyze EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and EUR/GBP separately: Were there correlations? If deviations occur, adjust for the upcoming week accordingly. Trading Checklist Overall Check News & Market Data Check the economic calendar for USD, EUR, and GBP. Update macro analysis (USD Score, EUR Score, GBP Score). If no clear macro direction is present → Avoid high-risk setups. Emotional Check (1-5 Scale) 1 = Emotionally unstable (high stress, impulsive decisions) 2 = Tense (uncertainty, low confidence in analysis) 3 = Neutral (calm but watchful) 4 = Focused (high confidence, clear thought process) 5 = Emotionally stable (fully calm and prepared) Only trade if your rating is 4 or 5! Macro Check Before Each Trading Day Calculate USD Score, EUR Score, and GBP Score. GBP/USD: Pay close attention to BoE meetings and UK inflation data. EUR/GBP: Analyze divergences between ECB and BoE policies. If major macro surprises occur (rate hikes, geopolitical events) → Adjust trading plan. HTF Check (H4 & D1) for Trend Direction & Key Zones EUR/USD: Confirm trend before entering a position. GBP/USD: No entries without clear trend confirmation. EUR/GBP: Avoid entries in range markets without a clear catalyst. Confirmation Model Prioritize LIQ spikes, especially in trends. Premium/Discount zones: Useful for precision but not always required in strong trends. Second HH or LL: Only necessary in uncertain market phases; otherwise, avoid excessive restrictions. Exit Strategies & Take-Profit Rules Fixed CRV EUR/USD: 1:3 remains unchanged. Fixed CRV XAU/USD: 1:2 remains unchanged. Fixed CRV GBP/USD: 1:3 preferred, 1:2 in uncertain macro conditions. Fixed CRV EUR/GBP: 1:2 standard (tighter price movements). Adjust BE after 0.5 FIB retracement or strong market impulse. During Trading Adjust stops or move to BE if strong fundamental factors move against the position. If major macro news drops: Adjust trade management or remain flat. Focus on London and New York sessions. Post-Trading (Review & Analysis) Check if macro bias was correct. If not: Analyze causes and refine the strategy. Evaluate EUR/USD, GBP/USD & EUR/GBP together: Look for correlations. If deviations occur, make adjustments for the upcoming week. Any Thoughts or Recommendations? sorry if its not quit the best English ^^
My layman's interpretation is that Trump is, at the same time, killing the fiscal (recessionary) and pushing massive tax cuts (inflationary). If there was ever a time for a "wait-and-see" approach, it's now. Dollar will move, but how much, when, and why is not clear.
Exactly. Just on tariffs alone, the last tariff war against china resulted in an M-shaped bond yield move over 2 years. Add inflationary impact of these tariffs, risk off but dedollarisation, your tax cuts etc. Christ, you'd need a hell of a model to weight all the inputs remotely accurately
[QUOTE="pauldapra, post: 6105518, member: 561240" Any Thoughts or Recommendations? sorry if its not quit the best English ^^[/QUOTE] Sorry for derailing your thread and belated welcome. It all boils down to do you have an edge... only you know that and it's impossible to judge because things like USD score could mean anything. My thoughts are without knowing a single thing about your performance - it looks like there's too many inputs. - I'd be very surprised if your macro bias adds anything long-term and might even be detrimental. - emotional gauge. Too complex. the simplest model, backed up by evidence is 3+/3-. If you're 3 positive trades in, or 3 losing trades in, you are considerably more likely to unbalance. overconfidence/despair scale - exits. what's the logic of 1:3? Backed up by stats or a trading trope? either way, best of luck
Sorry for derailing your thread and belated welcome. It all boils down to do you have an edge... only you know that and it's impossible to judge because things like USD score could mean anything. My thoughts are without knowing a single thing about your performance - it looks like there's too many inputs. - I'd be very surprised if your macro bias adds anything long-term and might even be detrimental. - emotional gauge. Too complex. the simplest model, backed up by evidence is 3+/3-. If you're 3 positive trades in, or 3 losing trades in, you are considerably more likely to unbalance. overconfidence/despair scale - exits. what's the logic of 1:3? Backed up by stats or a trading trope? either way, best of luck[/QUOTE] I appreciate your feedback, it gives me a clearer perspective on how my system is perceived from the outside. Point 1 I understand why it might look like too many inputs at first, but if it follows a clear structure and becomes routine, then it is simply a well-defined system. HTF analysis, internal and external liquidity, premium and discount zones, and then trend confirmation before entry—all of these are logical components. The fact that I wait for the second Higher Low in the Fib before entering and only use macro bias for risk adjustment shows that I do not rely on it as a primary decision-maker but as an additional filter. Point 2 Regarding my Macro Scoring System, I use a point-based model to categorize bullish, neutral, and bearish conditions. This minimizes subjectivity since my decisions are not based on feeling but on a structured assessment. The backtesting results have been solid, so I currently see no reason to discard it. As long as it is refining my risk management rather than dictating my trades, I consider it a valuable part of the system. Point 3 I completely understand the need for mental structure. Since I am not yet trading full-time, I need a clear system to avoid FOMO or justifying bad trades. When I am at home, it is usually not an issue, but in more dynamic situations, maintaining discipline is a challenge. This is an area I am actively working on improving. Point 4 The 1:3 risk-reward ratio has been the most profitable setup in my backtests. At the end of the day, what matters is what works long-term. Have you tested alternative RR models yourself? Some strategies function better with dynamic RR, such as 1:2.5 or 1:4, depending on volatility or ATR. It might be worth testing further to see if a more flexible approach improves overall efficiency. Overall, my system is rule-based, reduces emotional decision-making, and uses macro analysis as a supplement rather than a driving factor. That is exactly what I need for long-term success. The real question remains how well it holds up under live conditions. Theoretically, it looks solid, but the true challenge is whether the live results align with the expectations from backtesting. That is where every system is ultimately tested.
Got it. We have wildly different trading styles - I don't use any of the things you mentioned and our hold times are very different. Never fixed RR (exit is opposite of entry condition), no PA, no macro beyond assessing vol and jump risk. However, there are more methods than there are ticks in a day.. if it's all backed up by testing then grand. Go forth and coin it!