Actually, in my interpretation of Taleb's book is that high frequency success can be countered be rare (black swan) loss that exceeds all cumulative wins. In other words, the long term expectancy of seemingly "high win" systems is negative or zero. In addition, he gives particular credence to survivorship bias in decision making, whereas you might just be looking at lucky outliers when assessing your results: (ie are you a skilled investor or lucky idiot?)
well, nobody can guarantee your job, so if you work is it just chance or because you are good? Maybe you should stop working? 100% in life doesn't exist. Moving the odds at your advantage is still skill, if you do that consistently
Depends on your definition of failure. Considering how stupid most people are, they are wildly successful.
IF the markets are NOT random: 1. Why's it so hard to catch a top/bottom? 2. Why do so many people fail as traders? Markets have to be random because everyone has their OWN reason why xyz stock will go up and buys/ sells according to their belief.
1. One need not find the top or bottom to make $$$. 2. They expect6 trading to be an ATM machine -- lack discipline, lack money management skills, lack true trading skills. Markets are not random -- that belief is a recipe for failure.
this is my first post on ET... I have been lurking a little while as I have several friends, including my mentor who run active threads... I am a professional trader, not retail, and i believe that this post along with many others on this site are ridiculous. I'm not going to try to convince you of anything, however, I make money consistently each month, more in the last several years than I've made in my whole life. My colleagues are very successful traders, some have been trading on and off the floor for over 25 years, you're "observations" are actually "opinions" and opinions are like assholes, everyone has one and they all stink.
only thing different between professional and retail is leverage and commissions. your in the same game just different style of making a profit. retail players are the most risky they go for penny stocks making 300% returns in weeks and play double or nothing options. retail players have jobs outside the market and can afford to lose there capital.
retailers don't care about trading spreads and greeks etc..blackbox systems cause they don't need to or risk management stuff
Another piker bites the dust. very few succeed, in Anything, because against all odds, they belive they can. Most, like you, fail because of faulty societal norms which corrupt their thought process.