My Fed Lied To Me Today!

Discussion in 'Trading' started by stonedinvestor, Jun 25, 2008.

  1. Well it was some shock to hear the Fed jawbone the economy up today, I mean what is he smoking? That was a lie folks. And when the federal reserve lies it's because he is stuck. And struck he is... The better move today would have been the continuing attack on inflation but without doing anything, now we are left with in some respects a better stock investing situation for now but in the long run this whole mess is starting to feel like a whole year of flatline from near these levels. Agonizing. Only 1 desenting vote shows us some faith in big Ben,so it is through gritted teeth that I'll accept his inflation will recede mantra.... however I have been traveling quite a bit to Long Island & Litchfield County Ct and from what I see speeding by... communities are hurting quite a bit. Up in Essex MA, another dear place of my past... the jobless rate combined with some weird witch-like teenage pregnancy wave has the whole town on edge... foreclosed homes are creeping towards my second home purchase.
    The truth is health care costs are probably as important a situation as oil right now and no one is doing anything. For that I will welcome Obama.

    Anyway it's interesting what a watch list reveals about the market. My latest round had not a tech stk on it.... unless you count Chinese
    ad companies! It looked something like this---

    SNV Synovis a bank. GPN Global payment system JNS janus Capital.... when my system (human body) spits out these names you know a conservative environment is upon us.

    On Synovis
    Synovus Financial (SNV) is a relatively small community bank headquartered in Georgia that caters to small and midsized businesses. The company hasn't been immune to the slowing economy. Loan growth has slowed, write-offs increased and profits fell last year. [Editor's Note: Analysts expect another drop in 2008 to 73 cents a share.] The stock has fallen since early last year from the midteens to under $9 a share. But it has a book value of over $10 a share.

    Chief Executive Dick Anthony manages the company conservatively. Synovus has a strong balance sheet following last year's spinoff of their credit-card processing subsidiary. Write-offs should improve and profits should start growing again, reaching $1.30 a share to $1.50 a share in the next 24 months. Fair value for this stock is $15 a share.

    > I contacted my hedge fund about the name they said they have taken aggressive write downs and will rebound faster than the others... at the bottom range of a nice interday spike today... this I think I shall make a statement with tomorrow with a 7% yield...
    JANUS CAPITAL TOO looks like a buy here.
    GPN, JNS, SNV, these are different stoney stocks to be sure, but systems are meant to be followed. Of course we can still have some fun.
    NCOC becomes more interesting every day...

    On NCOC
    National Coal Corporation (NCOC) is the smallest publicly traded coal company in the U.S. It began operations in 2003. The company mines and sells coal in the Central Appalachian markets [CAPP]. In October, National acquired Mann Steel (a coal mining company), which expanded production by 50%. NCOC has two underground mines, five surface mines, two highwall mines, four prep plants, and four train facilities. In 2008, the company will produce between 2.5M and 3M tons of coal.

    NCOC sells most of its production to electric utility customers. The largest customers are South Carolina Public Service Authority, Georgia Power and Duke Power.

    The CEO is a former analyst from Merrill Lynch; he signed on in 2006. You may ask what the hell does an analyst know about running a coal company, I have been asking that all the way from $7.50!

    On to China for as sec. I can't wait for the Olympics a real excuse to do nothing all day. I had Kung Fu training today and my teacher was telling me about a Bee problem in China... yes the same lack of Bees that so threatened our shores recently and made all the papers... we need the bees to pollinate the crops or everything is a no go... how did they handle this problem in China? Well the Gov put ONE MILLION people into the fields and each pollinated the plants themselves with a stick they stuck into a bucket, one million people say one hundred plants a day X a month.... It's the scary part of China industrious strong, group thinking and under the thumb of a scary ass gov... like Russia they enjoy so many advantages over our system now....

    If these random market musings seem scattered they are I feel like a shell shocked vet
    at this point. Speaking of vets- the animal ones just called my boy is ready to come home and I'll catch up to you all soon. ~ stoney
     
  2. The Insider buying at Synovis is off the hook. Over 200,000 shares bought a few days ago at this exact price.

    Buy(P) /
    P/S date Filed Date Company Symbol Insider Relationship Share Amt. Unit Price Total Proceeds Shares

    P 2008-06-13 2008-06-17 13:54:38 SYNOVUS FINANCIAL CORP SNV AMOS DANIEL P director 172,300 $9.30 $1,602,390.00 269,745 view

    P 2008-06-13 2008-06-17 13:54:38 SYNOVUS FINANCIAL CORP SNV AMOS DANIEL P director 5,884 $9.29 $54,662.40 275,629 view

    P 2008-06-13 2008-06-17 13:54:38 SYNOVUS FINANCIAL CORP SNV AMOS DANIEL P director 21,716 $9.27 $201,307.00 297,345 view

    P 2008-06-13 2008-06-16 18:00:58 SYNOVUS FINANCIAL CORP SNV Hatcher Samuel F. officer (EVP, Gen. Counsel, Secretary) 19,500 $9.32 $181,740.00 19,500
     
  3. What do you mean "today"? They lie EVERY FRICKIN' DAY!
     
  4. ljmlmvlhk

    ljmlmvlhk Guest

    LONDON: World's largest metal and mining company ArcelorMittal on Monday announced that it has signed an agreement to acquire Mid Vol Coal Group of the US.

    Located in southern West Virginia and southwestern Virginia in the Central Appalachian coal basin, Mid Vol produced 1.5 million tons of metallurgical coking coal in 2007 and has estimated reserves and resources in excess of 85 million tons, a statement from ArcelorMittal said.

    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...uy_Mid_Vol_Coal_Group/articleshow/3156472.cms
     
  5. Ahahahahahahaha!

    The fed is far from stuck, they got you just where they want you. Clueless & powerless.
     
  6. Great points all. That Indian web site did not mention the price paid for the VERY SIMILAR coal company to NCOC.... I am asking around... Since our company already produces double the output I have stars in my eyes this morning.... The two questions are (1) Coal as a sector does it still work? Your reading someone who let Alpha natural secondary go two years ago at $17 or something outlandish like that... just one hold of a thousand shares would of returned.... well you know the story. and (2) are we at a tradable bottom yet for the market? As to the latter- if the banks can go up I am on board but todays nasty reveal by Goldman on the brokerages- finally the truth out of GS! - won't help there. Likewise the so so earnings out of RIMM.... internals are obviously oversold Support for the SPX remains at 1316 and then 1283, with resistance at 1327 and then 1344. Short term momentum was oversold at the lows while putting in a positive RSI divergence. The near term indicators were oversold with positive divergences as well. The daily and weekly indicators are also oversold with positive divergences. 1304 may be a tradable bottom and the downtrend may be over.... then again this market is very tricky. The Eliot wave count on the way down revealed a 5th Minor wave that was shorter than either the 1st or 3rd waves. usually a good sign. As long as SPX 1300 holds, and DOW 11,673 holds, I am expecting a new uptrend to unfold, lasting a few weeks and taking us back to SPX 1383. This would project a 61.8% retracement of this downtrend (1440-1304). If it seems like we keep falling and then retracing Fibs and falling again.... it's because we are! ~ stoney
     
  7. A few of my compatriots have emailed me about Doji candle formations in the market. I don't know about you but too many candles around the house makes me nervous... Simply put a "doji" candle is long wicks on each side of a small real body. This candle is indicative of uncertainty in the market, and can be formed as the balance of power between bulls and bears, which had been tilted to the bears, begins to even out at support. Call it a Doji tug of war, but at least the bulls are attempting a mini stand. We need to explode above these declining tops to break out and I was hoping the nasdog was in the process of a three day cleansing pattern. Could we open lower today and then reverse hard to the upside? That is the hope. The problem is the VIX is not spiking to levels that would indicate a big turnaround. The amount of fear evident in the VIX is not consistent with prior important market lows. The VIX is around 22. ~si
     
  8. The Zacks Revisions Ratio- what does it tell us about earnings?~si

    To help gauge the direction of the market, we take note of what analysts are thinking. By tallying their EPS changes, we can determine our revisions ratio. This ratio simply divides the total number of positive estimate revisions by the total number of estimate cuts. Thus, a high ratio is a bullish indicator and a low ratio is bearish. For the S&P 500 as a whole, a number below 0.80 or above 1.25 is generally significant. For individual sectors the distance from 1.0 should be greater for the numbers to be significant.

    The revisions ratio for 2008 blipped up, after falling for three straight weeks. It is now at 0.91, a reading that we generally consider neutral, up slightly from 0.91 last week. However, it is still lower than the 0.99 reading of two weeks ago, although just barely. The overall pace of estimate revisions is past the peak for this quarter, and is probably just about as low as it will go. Over the last four weeks there have been 1,159 changes in estimates: 572 up and 587 down, down 2.6% from 1,190: 568 up and 622 down last week. The ratio of firms with rising mean estimates to falling mean estimates is 0.90, slightly weaker than the revisions ratio, and in neutral territory. Four sectors are solidly in positive territory, and six in negative territory.

    Energy was far and away the strongest with over four increases for every cut. While estimate increases were widespread in the sector, the real stars were the E&P firms like XTO Energy (XTO) and EOG Resources (EOG). From a total economic impact point of view, significant increases were also seen for all of the big three, Exxon (XOM), Chevron (CVX) and Conoco (COP).

    Tech followed with well over two increases for each cut. Dell (DELL) was the most significant contributor to the Tech strength, although chip stocks were generally strong as well.

    The Financials were once again in the cellar, with almost four cuts per increase, although the pace of estimate cuts is less than we have generally seen in recent months. Regional Banks like Keycorp (KEY) and Zion (ZION) were among the weakest of the Financials.
     
  9. Arnie

    Arnie

    The coal NCOC produces is for eletricity generation. The coal produced by the co being acquired by MT is for steel making and sells for a quite a bit more. The below is from the WSJ 6/24

    The spot price of Central Appalachian coal sold to both utilities and steelmakers has tripled in the past year, with coal going to utilities rising to as much as $140 a ton from $44 a ton, and that destined to steelmakers to $300 a ton, from $100 a ton. Coal production in the region declined 2.3% through early June compared with the same period last year, according to an analysis by Mr. Forward of Stifel, Nicolaus of U.S. Energy Information Administration data.
     
  10. Thank you Arnie I was just looking at that fact... why is the big money always in the coke? taking down my takeover premium as they say! Nice spot.

    A word on speculation. Some ditzy broad was trying to make a name for herself on CNBC and did a big spiel on how great speculation was and to damper that would be sooooo anti market.... to which I say shut up. Speculation like volatility is supposed to be a two way street. Ever wonder why analysts say expect a volatile market when all it does is go down? That's not volatile by definition that's just sucky... and that's what we have with these supposed " speculators " If you are a speculator then show me both sides of the trade; show me Harvard investments- your short on oil, how many times have you gone against the masses and truly speculated. Ditto these lame ass pension funds... It's just like calling these brokerages good stock traders for their returns until it is revealed 14- 30 times leverage is used in every trade.... well here we have all the pension funds and big investors conspiring to play the same long oil trade and combined with the index funds there is no counter balance... in essence common speculation has taken the speculation out of the oil market. How do we put it back in? How to we bring real speculation back... by government intervention. And for all the free market loudmouths who will so defend their ability to take down this country, I want you to think about the public outcry when suddenly as if by magic oil retreats to $70. think we may get a little backlash from the every man???

    Gas could fall to $2 if Congress acts, analysts say
    Limiting speculation would push prices to fundamental level, lawmakers told

    -- The price of retail gasoline could fall by half, to around $2 a gallon, within 30 days of passage of a law to limit speculation in energy-futures markets, four energy analysts told Congress on Monday.
    Testifying to the House Energy and Commerce Committee, Michael Masters of Masters Capital Management said that the price of oil would quickly drop closer to its marginal cost of around $65 to $75 a barrel, about half the current $135.
    Fadel Gheit of Oppenheimer & Co., Edward Krapels of Energy Security Analysis and Roger Diwan of PFC Energy Consultants agreed with Masters' assessment at a hearing on proposed legislation to limit speculation in futures markets.
    Krapels said that it wouldn't even take 30 days to drive prices lower, as fund managers quickly liquidated their positions in futures markets.
    "Record oil prices are inflated by speculation and not justified by market fundamentals," according to Gheit. "Based on supply and demand fundamentals, crude-oil prices should not be above $60 per barrel."
    Futures trading in London has not been a major factor in rising oil prices, testified Sir Bob Reid, chairman of the Chairman of London-based ICE Futures Europe. Rising prices are largely a function of fundamental supply and demand, not manipulation or speculation, he said.
    "Energy speculation has become a growth industry and it is time for the government to intervene," said Rep. John Dingell, D-Mich., chairman of the full committee. "We need to consider a full range of options to counter this rapacious speculation." It was Dingell's strongest statement yet on the role of speculators.
    There has been much discussion recently about how big a role speculators have been playing in the sharp rise in energy prices, though no consensus has emerged on this point.

    There are two kinds of speculators in the futures markets, Masters said. Traditional speculators are those who need to hedge because they actually take physical possession of the commodities. Index speculators, on the other hand, are merely allocating a portion of their portfolio to commodity futures.
    Index speculation damages price-discovery mechanisms provided by futures markets, Masters added. As I have been saying all along lets ship the barrels to the longs! If they want the oil so bad they can store it in warehouses like Goldman did in the old days with gold and silver. It may not stop the speculation but it sure as hell will real it in. And we will all get relief.

    The committee will likely consider legislation that would rein in index speculation by imposing higher-margin requirements; setting position limits for speculators; requiring more disclosure of positions; and preventing pension funds and investment banks from owning commodities.
    Both major presidential candidates have supported closing loopholes that encourage speculation in the energy markets.

    Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman have dismissed the impact of speculators on prices paid by consumers. Hummmm, wonder why. Here is where having street insider Paulson at the helm is KILLING us. Imagine their real fear if oil drops- it will ruin their lives! Why didn't you act sooner will be the question; why did you allow us to be driven to recession and near depression to protect the few rich speculators? Paulson quite likely would lose his job at the very least Bodman would be sent away to chop wood somewhere. Imagine the Global surprise when we all find out it is not DEMAND driving oil prices at all.... Demand is going DOWN everywhere... We need a strong political figure to get past the comfy protectionist Paulson, if some of these pension funds want to stay out of trouble, I suggest they start selling now.... and in fact they are. ~ stoney
     
    #10     Jun 26, 2008