Marvelous. the seeking alpha link is for "pro" only, fyi. the BCM site was inspiring. it does seem so simple to trend trade. that got me thinking, of how and if i can make adjustments for shorter time frames.
this view is too popular among retail.. the reason why retail is still not participating in the bull run.. better buy now before they wake up who knows when. how many actually bot in the 2008 meltdown? heck, how many got scared out in the past Feb? buying melt down is easier said than done. in 2008 we were hours from seizing up... not buying was totally rational. on the way to the moon, how many all time highs will be taken out? there is no such thing as 'high', there is only 'higher'. valuation - why is everybody so quiet about the 'Fed model' now? according to which SP fair value should be at 6000.... nobody knows the real final effect of such low interest rates. I rely heavily on sentiment, especially retail sentiment, the perfect contrarian indicator.... it was extremely bearish in 2016 and 2017, now it's strongly bearish. long way to go guys.
I'm with you on the retail sentiment. not that i consider myself knowledgeable about what exactly you mean (please elaborate!) but when i managed retail clients, i remember that when they were all terrified, it was a good time to buy, and when they got greedy... the other way around. And regarding the meltdown, i totally agree. I still remember the the days that we now know were the bottom (march 9th, 09) seeing the xlf @ 6$~ and thinking to myself that even if 50% of the underlyings were to go bust, the nav should be way higher than 6$. yet, buying it only to see it going to 3$ in a matter of weeks (which was the prevalent sentiment) WAS petrifying. i try to remember those feelings today, so as not to let them cloud my judgement in the future. these days however, i'm really not sure where we stand..
I meant this https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment been using this for several years... sp500 was 1:9 long/short in 2016 and most of 2017, until in Jan 2018 it got to 5:5..... now somewhere around 3:7 couple this with AAII bull/bear, valuation itself - 3% 10-year vs. 6% forward sp earning yield (fair value should be on par between the 2!), then there is the checking account balance at all time high, corporate cash, stock buy back, dollar repatriation, biz sentiment at all time highs. people count their fingers to 10, 10 years of bull and it's suppose to die? no logic here... why not count the toes also. by the way also look at the gold and bitcoin ratios, 9:1 and 8:2 ... isn't this how retail thinks? are your retail clients not afraid of a stock crash right now? retail is piling into these 'safe assets' waiting for a crash. perfect contrarian indicators here.