Went long your spread @ -4185.8( Seasonalgo quote ), but on BZ and HO, which is pretty much the same. By the way, I think OPEC production increase should be bearish for Brent curve.
Yes, if they will increase. I just try not speculate increase/decrease (or build/drawdown or whatever) as it never worked out for me in the past just caused a lot of trouble.
I've been researching at seasonal energy spreads for a short while. With seasonal trades is it best to place your stop above the highest price for the last 10 years for this spread? I've attached a chart of your trade:
I don't place stops ( except for spreads subject to squeezes. Ex: Robusta Coffee ), but yes you should place your mental stop at a price highly unusual. You want to be really wrong when you are stopped. Adjust your profit target accordingly, it should be at a "normal" value...
Getting close to rollover. Everything close to the front of the curve is volatile, otherwise this spread never moves.
http://money.cnn.com/2018/06/27/news/economy/iran-oil-sanctions-us-india/index.html Why would India or any other country stop importing Iranian oil? I mean, it will sure deteriorate their diplomatic relationships with the US, but it is not the United Nations or NATO ...What can the US do if they don't comply?
There is a nice seasonal window to be long HO V/X right now, but it is already rich. With OPEC increasing production and nuisances like Lybia getting worked out, I find it hard to be long the crude curve, but on the other side, refined products have a life of their own, and I have seen Singapore Gasoil has just gone backwardated :https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/...expectations-of-improving-market-fundamentals Thoughts?