My energy trades

Since Crude is priced in dollars and US dollars is the reserve currency those US dollars has to flow thro' US banks some how. US has enormous power over other countries by restricting the banks with who it does business with.

India did try to avoid this by using some bartering system, but US slapped them with sanctions over other matter

 

Good point.

 

I find a bit odd that summer HO months are currently quite rich compared to HOF20 with IMO2020. If you take HO N/F, Q/F, U/F, they are all quite high historically whereas HO being an ultra low sulfur diesel, it should be in much higher demand next year( or at least represent a proxy for new marine fuel ). I also read somewhere that ULSD is now in large supplies in Europe as refineries have started processing light crudes. I am tempted to short those spreads.

 

Just shorted HO N/F @ -0.0422 based on the previous post.

 

https://blogs.platts.com/2019/04/16/us-oil-change-pace-2019/

 

05-13-19 : Short HO Q/U @ -0.0062.
- High historical level.
- IMO2020 is still 4 months after those expiries.
- Seasonals

 

You're a stronger man than I, Gunga Din. I would be terrified to short any near term expiry in the face of Saudi/UAE commercial vessel sabotage attacks.

 

I read about it after initiating the trade, but it doesn't look like the trade is paying attention. Even Brent is red. And I didn't place my stop too close. Obviously I will reconsider if a real military conflict starts.

 

It seems Bone was right about geopolitical tensions. I have liquidated some short energy spreads I had but I keep the HO Q/U for now.

 

I've lightened up on some positions as well.