my divine commedia to optionality

Discussion in 'Journals' started by .sigma, Oct 20, 2019.

  1. gaussian

    gaussian

    Most of his other books are just him bleeting on about how great he is and how I dont understand anything.

    When he was still a trader his writing was good. Now he's just a troll with a publisher.
     
    #21     Oct 21, 2019
  2. .sigma

    .sigma

    Damn.. well everyone has different views.
    I actually enjoy all of his books. Theres not many books in the financial math realm that are as entertaining and unique like Talebs.

    I wouldn't say hes a troll... but he has the guts to call academia out on its bulllshit and I respect that. He's some Lebanese dude who struck it gold buying underpriced tails and has enough $ to live the rest of his life in leisure, being a flaneur.. I envy him just for accomplishing such tasks.
     
    #22     Oct 22, 2019
  3. .sigma

    .sigma

    Some #stylizedfactz
     
    #23     Oct 22, 2019
  4. .sigma

    .sigma

    You can't understand volatility without knowing who Rob Engle is.

    He won the Nobel Prize for modeling vol. That's a nice attribute to have for oneself!

    He modeled the time-varying nature of return fluctuations, which is a characteristic of vol.

    Engle was first to use ARCH(auto-regressive conditional heteroscedasticity) model to capture this type of vol. What type? Volatility clustering.
    Financial asset returns are "lumpier" in contrast to the even variations of a normal distributed variable.
    With volatility clustering, a turbulent trading day tends to be followed by another turbulent trading day.(VOLBEGETSVOL)

    AUTOREGRESSIVE - because high/low vol tends to persist.
    CONDITIONAL - because its time-varying or with respect to time.
    HETEROSCEDASTICITY - non-constant volatility.
     
    #24     Oct 22, 2019
  5. .sigma

    .sigma

    Long 15 Nov 19 26/29 call vertical @ $1.28 risk in $GDX

    Target is around the 10-month vol-val area around $27.8-28.5. Also most open interest is at the 28.5 strike in Nov, just sayin..

    Also might go long $X calls or maybe even a covered call.. spot+ short the $12 or $13 call..although it has earnings on Halloween I think.

    Looking at several earnings trades I"ll note if I enter!
     
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    #25     Oct 24, 2019
  6. .sigma

    .sigma

    Been sick for the last three days, feel so lethargic, but feeling better each day!

    Just updating this journal. I liquidated the $GDX trade. Thursday nd Friday were lovely and price oscillated up to $28 for a profit of .32 cents!
     
    #26     Oct 26, 2019
  7. .sigma

    .sigma

    $FTSI - still holding shares
    $LBRT - winner
    $PK - winner
    $DCP - winner
     
    #27     Oct 27, 2019
  8. .sigma

    .sigma

    $BAS had enormous volume on the 24th, not sure what caused that. I haven't opened anything yet.

    $BYND is sitting pretty on support, looking at long OTM calls or maybe verticalize it.
     
    #28     Oct 27, 2019
  9. .sigma

    .sigma

    $CMRX
     
    #29     Oct 28, 2019
  10. .sigma

    .sigma

    I am long $CMRX shares @ 1.30 risk, loaded up!!
     
    #30     Oct 28, 2019