Sheesh. You just had to go screw up one of my fave histories, huh? That's gonna cost you, mister. (Admittedly, there are better passages in Henry V. The one before Agincourt is pretty decent. This one, I've always thought just a bit overdone.)
Was thinking of shorting $TSLA yesterday with a long put spread and pulled out because why buck the beast? And look! But that comes with trading.. we all leave so much potential slices of the pie within the whole.
You've said a mouthful. And regrets suck; there's no way for you to "have known" ahead of time; if there was, trading wouldn't exist. You do what you can, and just keep forging on. The main thing is to win, and keep on winning. The main thing is that you take your shot, and damn the torpedoes.
No matter how delta-neutral you may be you'll need to be skilled in directional moves. I am relatively good at entering trades that are usually at extremes in price. I don't consider myself a "technical" trader but Im always glancing at charts to see a few things: where spot is currently, where has spot been, is spot in a value range or is spot at an extreme? I also look at volume by time and price which give clues on activity of buy/selling. Charts are fractal so I look at all scales of time and of course if the weekly is set up nicely then the smaller time frames will follow suit.