Too much has changed since 1987. In a normal world with rates going up each day, the stock market should be getting hit.....but it isnt. My only problem right now with being overly bearish is what happens when/if rates start to head back down, the Sp's could and most likely will fly through the roof. Also with crude and gold at these levels the stock mkt should be getting hit....it isnt.... I think MP is a great tool for fixed income mkts....most of the traders I have run across over the yrs use it for 30ys, 10 ys, Bunds.....you seem to be very knowledgeable with it...have you ever considered trading fixed income instead?
GS is down a dollar from the high. chances of getting filled at 1312 is slim. limit-moved to 1310, stop 1314
Even though I missed the price by .25 pts and do not have a short position. I'm loving today's action. If my analysis is true, this is just a begining.
One of the mistakes that I made today was to put a sell-limit at 1312. The POC was 1311 and PP was 1310.5. Based on that I should have had my limit at 1311. Anyway, That was a pretty nice comeback. The close today < close yesterday so I'll still say we are in a downtrend but due to this last hour comeback we will probably see the prices open higher on Monday and give back during the day. Will post the VR later this weekend.
Plan for Monday: VR: 1307-1308 Close Friday < Close Thursday (trend down) If we open below the VR or inside the VR Sell-limit at 1307 - Stop 1311 - Exit at close If we open Higher than VR Buy yesterday's low or Sell Yesterday's high whichever comes first with a 4 pt. stop. So this means Buy at 1303 - Stop 1299 - Target 1309 Sell at 1311 - Stop 1315 - Exit at close (because the two day trend is down - so we might be able to get more than 6 pts.)
Here are the MP numbers from Friday. VAH: 1308.5 POC: 1306.5 VAL: 1304 Any suggestations on how MP purists would trade this?
As you guys can probably tell by now that this journal is a work in progress. This weekend I looked at past few month's data to see if I could do better if I compare the closing prices. The result was a big "NO". So now I'm just going to do back to when I started this journal. Basically if the price is above the VR buy, if it is below sell, with a 4 pt. target and a 4 pt. stop. Even though on surface the risk/reward is 1:1, it is actually better than 1 because the chances of reaching the target first is greater than the chances of reaching the stop. I have been going through other people's journals here to see if I can combine their methods with mine to come up with a better result. I am looking for strategies that deal with price only and no technical indicators.
The range for today is 1307-1308. ES is currently trading at 1310. The overnight high was 1311.50. If in the next hour (before market opens) it comes down to 1308, Sell at 1308 with a stop at 1312. If not, buy limit at 1308, Stop 1304, target 1312. Let's see how this plays out.