Looking at the long-term picture. 1299 should be the weak support and 1291 will be a strong support. Although it is hard to say where prices will open tomorrow morning but if today's action is any indication of things to come, then we'll probably open lower than the value-range. Sell-limit at 1316.25 with a stop at 1320.25 and target at 1308.25.
When you're capital limited you have less money management choices. Van Tharp calls the situation you describe "one unit per fixed amount of money". If you choose to trade two contracts, you double your risk. This comes with increased drawdowns, and if you're undercapitalized you may get bankrupt. You could also choose to tighten your stop loss, but you may get killed by whipsaws. Another choice is to trade more contracts in a less expensive market until you have enough capital for the S&P futures.
one thing that bothers me and messes me up is the fact that we return to the previous days close about 80% of the time...so I personally find it tough buying at poc or high volume numbers when it is above the previous days close.....the fact that they rallied it from the start yesterday and didn't return it to the previous days close has me concerned ..assuming that they won't do the same thing twice.....I hope they do for your trade sake but I think that selling into the 1318.50 area was/is the play but that's just my 3 cents......it's your thread...hope you get your 4 points today....do u have a target for today?
Exit: 1317.5 Well today I did not panic and do anything stupid. Just followed the plan. Even though the gain is 0.25 pts. before commissions, it felt good to execute the plan. My target was at 1324 which did not get hit so I exited at EOD. My EOD is 2.43-2.45.
One of the questions that I have seen here is how do I determine the long-term value range when the current contract expires and a new one starts. I used to just add the premium and do the calculations but it was not effecient. I think I have figured it out. Do your analysis on SPY and watch the SPY. When the SPY hits your buy or sell price execute it on the ES.