My Conclusions

Discussion in 'Options' started by luh3417, Jun 15, 2006.

  1. riverun

    riverun

    I'm a direction player but most often do it with OTM calendars or diagnals. Most often I go a few months out for back month and sell the front month. Sometimes I will buy calls or puts straight up if I have a strong enough feeling the the movement of the stock.

    Buying debit calendars and diagnals slows the action down a bit and gives me time to evaluate what is happening to the position.

    If I'm wrong right from the get-go, I get out quickly and move on to the next trade. Since I'm OTM by a strike or two and it looks like the front month may get exercised, I'll by back the front month of if it still looks strong or just close.

    I have a very defined reason for every position I enter which is based 1st on a broad assessment of the markets. What sectors or industries are moving. Once I grab ahold of a trading idea, I look at time and how fast I think the underlying will move. I will often watch a stock for a long time before I make my move.

    For example right now -

    I'm long chk calls (got in two weeks ago (Oct 30s)- reason, I have been watching natural gas very closely expecting a healthy recoveryand my research on the company drove me to the conclusion that it would react favorable after a long lethargic spell.

    Two gold stock ABX and GG - Have be long the ABX Aug 32.5, Oct Calendar. Just went long the GG Sep/ October 35 calendar.
    My hope is that the front months expire nearer to the front month strike and the back months take off. I watch gold and gold stock very methodically.

    Short IWM 64 65 diagnal - watched the RUT start to weaken and saw a divergenc forming. Generally bearish stance on the market as a whole but more so the RUT.

    Short the RTH 85 Sep/Oct calendar - Retail looks to be weakening. The middle and lower classes just won't be able to buy near as much as in the past. Folks can't finance spending whims from there house now and fuel prices are eating away at disposable income.

    You know I could be wrong in every case but my point is this. Going long or short with options on stocks isn't all that different than just dealing with the underlying. Thing is you got to have a good handle on the markets and you got to have stock picking skills. So where is your focus.

    Some folks may do alright with delta neutral strategies. But honestly, I believe direction is embedded in that stuff plus its just way to much work trying to keep a position reasonalble balanced, no matter that you started neutral.

    My attitude about the greeks and playing volitility is very negative. Other than glances at delta, theta and implied vol, I don't pay all that much attention to them - waste of time in my humble opinion.

    Beginners at the options game get all caught in the greeks, implied vol etc and don't learn to read price action. Some get all hung up on technical analysis. Most don't learn enough about fundamentals.

    Guess what folks, you ain't gonna make money in the retail arena until you figure out how to read stocks, sectors, industries and the general market. And then guess what, your still going to be wrong a good bit of the time. So you gotta know when to holdem and know when to foldem also - money management.

    I speak as one that made all the worst mistakes. In fact it got so bad I just quit for 5 years. In the back of my mind though, I believed that I could win at this game but I knew I didn't know nearly enough.

    So I read and I read and I read. Then I read some more. I became very familiar with my sources of information, all from the internet. I am still looking for more and their all free.

    I don't subscribe to any newsletters, I don't have the IBD or the Journal, I rarely watch CNBC.

    Someone gives me a hot tip and my 1st reaction is to short it but if I do look at it, I never chase it.

    So for the fellow that started this thread, I feel your pain man but believe me, you can make money in the options game if your willing to pay the price.

    Cheers
     
    #71     Aug 1, 2006
  2. novel20

    novel20

    I have not gone through the whole thread, but are you still holding the INTC Oct 17.5 calls?
     
    #72     Aug 1, 2006
  3. I like this guy. :D
     
    #73     Aug 1, 2006
  4. Burn this thread.
    Burn it.
     
    #74     Aug 1, 2006
  5. What?!
    and miss this?!
    Good Morning, Liz!:D

    [​IMG] :eek:


    (my apologies to the females on the board)
     
    #75     Aug 1, 2006