No, I am just a dumb newbie trying to learn from all the trading masters here. I don''t know how to short, mostly long China.
Not a trading master at all... I still use a Quest Trade account instead of IB ,cause when I started I didn't know how to trade I had to call customer service and guide me through the motions, did it first few times for stocks and options, now solo... Doesn't take a master of anything, just some Critical Thinking/Analytical Thinking and some reading Kyle Bass is a troll shorting RMB, by the time your trade pays off, the rest of the global economy would of gone into shit either way. I recommend to anyone, never short anything related to China Currency or Equities, they will defend it to death, turkey style... They pay people all day every day to post on all types of forums to hype the view on there economy, you don't think they would create money out of thin air even more, to protect there image or economy ? It's non sense going against a Central Bank
A post and video link was just made to this thread below about Canadian housing. What's interesting is that in the first minute, the reason given is the China Credit Bubble. Now this video is almost 3 months old, but its nevertheless interesting to see other references to this theme other than just you Stockolio. LOL https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...es-most-in-history.308996/page-5#post-4849067 I find your posts very interesting, but I still would be wary of assuming that someone as big as China who has so much more power to manipulate its people than even the US will not be able to paper over whatever problem they may encounter.
The only ponzi here is you my friend. Can I venture my guess? A disgruntled and entitled little Chinese boy who graduated from UBC and whose father fell ill with Baba Xi and became disgraced in China and now you sit in rainy Vancouver and don't know better what to do with all your free time because going back to China is not an option. Or is the story far simpler and you and/or your dad are criminals who ran from China and are currently in the hiding?
Canadian housing on the west coast is getting drilled and likely get obliterated once full blown collapse in China... East coast is still doing good, Montreal is on fire right now, Toronto is financial hub of Canada and world class city, very friendly policies for money laundering so obviously RE will always be high... Canadian banks will take a hit but not more then anywhere specifically, a lot of undeclared money at all times in Canadian economy, outsiders dont understand this, were in a recession but its not too bad. Richmond which is a high majority Chinese ethnicity, has been seeing some fire sales on RE. Even downtown Vancouver is seeing commercial RE fire sales from Offshore Chinese investors. A friend is in residential RE, he was telling me this girl he knew in commercial RE was saying fire sales since Feb, panic sales just need cash asap Chinese Economy basically imports Inflation and exports Deflation, thats why business and wall street love China so much and refusing to admit truth until they clear investments from there. Also people under appreciate the amount of foreign money they brought to other countries, Canada and Australia have benefited greatly from it and those economies will suffer when China collapses... 70 Percent of the worlds created debt between 08-18 came from China Corporate sector ( on paper )... If you add Shadow Banking, Local government hidden debt, China created around 80-90 Percent of the worlds debt in past 10 years. A lot of industries and countries will hurt once sugar daddy is gone
I am sure there is a lot of fraud in the Chinese economy. Any any emerging market, it's economic are driven by bribes and kickbacks instead of supply and demand. The problem is that someone like China has really deep pockets and is likely to prevail over speculators. It does not matter if you are right if that "right" arrives 20 years down the road. In fairness, the whole idea of trading based on this type of thesis is that you want to catch it before it's fully reflected in the market. It's a high conviction trade that you'd hold through a lot of pain with the expectation of a massive payoff (e.g. the guys who shorted subprime in 2008 - FWIW, I covered my short TABX position in the late fall of 2007).
Well, it's not a high conviction trade when neither the signs are there in equity markets nor bond markets nor reflected in fundamentals. The same Muppets come out year after year and proclaim the end of the world yet they are always conspicuously absent before or during crises. Most likely their pockets are not aligned with their mouths. Lastely, this guy has clearly proven that he has no clue what he is talking about, @luisHK correctly pointed that out as well. It's always the same clowns who say stuff based on certain motivations they hide from everyone and come out time again with stuff they half make up, and half copy from various other sources. But they truly do not know what they are talking about
Truth about defaults touched a nerve ? Truth Hurts little man ? I am Canadian... Breath buddy, breath