Yes indicator's are lagging, but unless your scalping its ok to get into a trend trade a little late, we all know how long some trends can go for and we also know what getting in "early" can do as well. lol. What you really need to work on is maximizing your profit when you catch a move. So IMO as long as you can get at a decent R:R level the lagging part is somewhat mute from an intraday swing perspective.
thanks for the information on the termination of his newsletter. it's unfortunate that a real trader's book can't get the acclaim that a marketer's might, but that's unfortunately the way it works.
I took decent profits on one contract of yen at 9.376 and 4 contracts of cocoa at 2870. Silver had a very nice down day and I decided to cover at 17.090 (shorted at 17.575) The silver trade was especially tough to cover but my new motto is better sooner than later. I also wanted to hold the yen contract for another day or so but stocks concern me right now and yen has a strong negative correlation to stocks. 1 Coffee was bought at 1.3555 and exited at 1.33 for a loss. The stock market had about a sideways day, with YM the most positive and NQ the least. ER2 was also on the negative side. This points towards more downside since NQ tends to lead and YM tends to be the tail. However the fear index (VIX) was down .44 to 23.12. This is just one day and also matches the action of the day but it would have been nicer if the VIX stayed high or even gained some (means the smart money would still have downside concerns) The most important factor is the lines. In the NQ the SL has made a lower high and is pointing down, but in the ES and YM there was no turn down in the SL accompanied by a lower high. NQ does tend to lead though. Especially with trend up and this a potential dip situation I will pass for now. The copper trade has mentally exhausted me. I could exit now with small profits. But odds of a good downside move tomorrow are good enough that I will hold for one more day. I could easily exit at a loss tomorrow, I am just playing the risk reward. Cotton is attractive for an anticipation trade right now. Assuming there is more downside pressure, this would turn the ML down from it's current level. Cotton has already blasted through it's old resistance levels from back in November/december So I am comfortable shorting 2 contracts at these levels. I still like coffee on the upside and believed I mistimed the move. Especially now with price at the resistance area (recent lows in jan-may are about 1.29) The upside looks very good on an odds basis, even better than yesterday. I am going long 2 contracts.
4 am update: After looking at the cotton trade again I decided that making a case for shorts required too much speculation. Pressure could easily be to the upside and if it is, the ML will strengthen to the upside. Sidelines is indicated here. I also decided to sell my single copper contract after all. I liked the downside more but not by much. Sold at 3.58 for small to decent profits. I longed 2 coffee at 1.3225. This is my only position right now.
Iâve noticed in the past that I often give back some profits following a period of good trades. I think this is because the risk: reward tends to deteriorate in about 70% of trades but strengthen in 30% of them. That last 30% of trades can be the most profitable, but distinguishing them is very hard. Chick did it well, and with time I may be able to. For now I will take decent profits and let them go. Taking quicker profits has its downsides. When timing the dip/rallies correctly like these past few days, but getting out early, my system will show good signs to get in and try to catch a big move. I can either sit back and wait until the pattern goes away and set up again for another good trade, or I could try the trade and but at a worse price. Neither seem very appealing. However that momentum play I tried the other day seemed to be a nice in-between. It allowed me to pull out an ok trade just by setting up some orders that would hit only if price energy was strong to that side (hopefully strong enough to carry price to the exit order) I see a potential momentum play on: short currencies, metals. Long energies, cocoa. I will examine the charts and see which ones I think have a good risk reward and try some more momentum trades. My coffee trade did well today and I will exit both today. Normally I would exit one and hold one, but coffee has no trend and is too choppy, so one day of movement was all I was looking for.
These momentum orders are incredible! I had short orders set to trigger on Yen at 9.19 and gold at 861. Neither one triggered since today was a good sized up day in most markets. I had long order on the energies. Natural gas was set to enter at 12.650 and exited at 12.770 which hit close to the highs of the day!. One part of me is proud that I put in the exit order perfectly, but the other part says that this was not good because my margin for mistakes was not very high and the trade could have missed. However since the entry order was set at a good point that ensured pressure was to the upside, even missing the exit order would not have caused a loss (and actually still a small profit if I were to exit now) Crude was set to trigger at 134. I felt the pattern had good enough chance of making another spike type move today so no exit order (except the stop) so this position is still open and is hovering around 136.50. I went long 3 cocoa at 2890 because the pattern was positive enough that I just wanted to be in on the long side again. 2 Coffee was exited at 3.2440 for ok profits. This online journal has been an exceptional boost to my trading. For whatever reason, posting a summary of my main journal online seems to make me more accountable of my bad trading decisions and focus even moreso on keeping a good risk rewards. Posting online is like a sort of "positive peer pressure" in that way. In the past I probably would have outright longed or shorted everything today (including short yen and gold) and then maybe held them for a week or longer, which may or may not have been profitable but would have certainly caused much distress. Holding for long timeframes is a great advantage of interday trading but also a great source of stress. These new momentum orders have turned out to be an exceptional tool for me that arose from this journal. I think in the future they will be used significantly in lower risk reward situations, which come up much more than the higher R/R situations. After the market closes I will post my plans for these open trades. My estimate is that crude will be exited and cocoa will be held for another day or so. I may also post my profit/loss early for these last 1.5 weeks, because I am more curious than I normally am (I've sometimes gone for a month without checking my balance)
New balance is $81,800. Great start to this journal. Bonds and notes did not hold their gains on this good sized down day in stocks. Additionally the pattern is very negative and the ML is strengthening to the downside. I am shorting 4 notes contracts at 112.17. Euro is also pretty negative. Issue here is that the trend is about neutral and there has only been a one day rally. I decided to short 1 contract at 1.5490. I am holding my 3 cocoa contract and will probably sell tomorrow.
All positions did well today. I covered my euro contract for a small profit at about 1.5450. The pattern here is too neutral to stay short. Price is at resistance, there is no trend (or if anticipated it is slightly down), dollar index has had a sharp down day which worries me of the upside for all currencies. I debated whether to cover half or all ZN contracts today. The pattern here is still quite negative, but profits were quite good and price was on resistance levels so I decided to cover all at 111.12. My 3 cocoa contracts will be sold for good profits per contract after this large up day. No reason on line basis to exit here but profits are quite good and I like to take profits early now and not deal with the fuss of longer holding periods. Today's trade are all momentum orders. I have 2 natural gas set to long at 12.950 and exit at 13.09. The NG market has the strongest trend of any market. Only issue here is that short term price flow (SL) is declining rapidly, but since SL is the least important indicator I want to still be long on any strength. NG also has a habit of making sharp, abrupt move which are difficult to time. I have 4 gold set to short at 860 and cover at 854. The trend on gold is deteriorating rapidly but still good enough to short on good downside pressure tomorrow. I have 6 corn set to long at 7.24 and exit at 7.33. This is my riskiest trade because price is so overextended that there could be a reversal at any time. I hope that my entry and exit orders have been placed at correct intervals to account for this.
AshanD, I'm trying to track your trades, but am unfamiliar with short term and mid-term SMR momentum indicators. I'm using TNT software. Which indicators would be best to simulate the SMR indicators - if it can be done? Cheers, medowz
Hi Medowz, the SL and ML can be duplicated on a 3, 10, 16 MACD that uses SMAs (EMAs are standard on MACDs) It is very important that the lines are SMAs so we can learn to anticipate or "read through" them. EMAs have a more complicated formula and while they may be more reactionary, I don't think they are better for this reason. The corn trade was executed successfully. A friend has checked my account and hinted that I am somewhat close to breaking $100,000. This will be a major milestone for me, I have been waiting to reach this number for many years and it is within reach now. I just got back from a trip so Im running a little late but will do my analysis and post trades for today.