Bro, this is Tuesday—not Monday! Your 10 PM PST trade worked out this time, but I don't recommend you make this a habit. Your three-day total is now up to $34 and so far the strategy you are using is six for six. NOTE: Nothing has changed, yet if you purchase a contract eight hours out, the payout is $14.50. (Darn...it just popped down to $12.50!) But you hate anything above two hours because it's too wide a window for circumstances to turn against you. Plus, if you buy the contract now, you will be asleep if that happens and will suffer the full loss rather than being able to check out early when it is only around $15. But go ahead and test your system under the added pressure. If you genuinely have the bias right, the rate should move farther away from 75.40 with time—not closer to it.
AUDJPY fell as low as 75.11, but then climbed all the way back up above 75.40. With two hours left to go, I have no idea if this pair is going to be in-the-money at expiry. I could get out with a $7.00 loss right now, and I would if the riverbank envelope were bullish. But it has switched from bullish to neutral with outer resistance below 75.40, so I am going to take my chances and see what happens. I just saw signs that this pair might be reversing south again, so perhaps the market makers pushed it all the way back up so they could ride it all the way back down again during the New York session. Meanwhile, GBPUSD is approaching my outer day range at 1.3177. GBPJPY is behaving in a similar manner, so if they eventually turn south, I might purchase put contracts.
Wednesday / January 22, 2020 / 7:25 a.m. PST The numbers told me to adjust my take-profit target with AUDJPY in my Tickmill account, which yielded a return of $1.64 trading 0.01 lots. I wanted to note this because my target was never hit last night and the pair climbed all the way back up to 75.40 to stop me out for a -93ȼ loss and I wanted to see how much I would have made if I had been awake to manage my positions at that time. Of course, if that were the case, I could have just made $1.64 twice! Fortunately I was also short USDJPY, so that gave me an additional $1.50. GBPJPY's riverbank envelope just turned south, so I'm hoping the rate can climb back up to around 144.40 just as AUDJPY reaches expiry so I can buy a put contract with a 144.60 strike price (since a $100 Nadex account would limit me to purchasing only one contract at a time). For some reason the two-hour contracts in my Nadex demo account are saying "Expired" so if I do enter a position, it is going to have to be for four hours. If I could have purchased this contract at optimum profitability, it would have been worth twice as much ($30).
If the above trade is successful, it will be seven for seven, and suggest that a one-week $100 return on a $100 initial account balance is theoretically possible. If the success rate turns out to be in the neighborhood of 100% and bad trades are exited at around $15 as opposed to $85, then hypothetically, the opening balance can be doubled every week, from $100 to $200 to $400, $800, and $1600 so that by the fifth or sixth week, one would be earning a living and able to back off the intensity and risk taking.
Wednesday / January 22, 2022 / 10:20 a.m. PST The above goal has been reached. Hence, this journal has served its purpose. In a week or two I should have enough discretionary dough to put it in my live Nadex account and begin doing this for real. So until then, I will simply continue this activity privately.
Tuesday / November 10, 2022 This journal served its original purpose by helping me identify some key levels, so for the foreseeable future, I'll simply be using it to journal related observations. Note to Self: At 81.03 CADJPY has reached a zone where I want to be watching for a reversal in the daily instantaneous moving average as a longer-term sell signal. (Other pairs to which the same applies include AUDJPY, GBPJPY, and NZDJPY—all the yen-pairs on your watch list.)
My focus now is predominantly on trading via Nadex, so I'm going to try something new with respect to my Forex account(s). Since I'm no longer really day trading there, rather than wait for a signal from the zero-lag moving average on the daily charts (which will incur a delay) I'm going to enter positions instead using one-hour charts and try to give myself enough wiggle room to avoid being stopped out thanks to the funny business of the market makers, but not so much that I might lose more than what I'm comfortable with...then stay with the trade until the day-to-day trend reverses direction again. I am therefore already short EURUSD, which reversed direction between yesterday and today. My take-profit target is 1.1666. But I'd be thrilled to realize even half the much in profit, which the pair is almost sure to do, if it really has committed to turning south.
At 72.68, NZDJPY is in a region that was support back around August through September of 2018 and again in September of 2019, then became resistance in July of 2019 and again in January of this year. I would therefore expect to see it turn south within the next four or five days. If it opts not to, I will have to conclude that some type of strong fundamental factors are at play.
NOTES TO MYSELF: Wednesday / November 11, 2020, 10:00 AM PST AUDUSD has closed in about the same general area over the past five days. If it closes lower tomorrow, it will have probably initiated a day-to-day reversal southward. Keep an eye of EURGBP. It's bearish, but it's in the lower half of the daily price range and might pop up for a day or two. You might want to sell GBPJPY and especially GBPUSD the next time you get a nice pullback to the upside. I'm already long USDCAD with a take-profit target of 1.3286.