My Big Fat Greek Funeral: How Many PIIGS Will Survive?

I am beginning to worry about Greece. I see this optimistic article about the funds almost ready for rescue, yet the market has largely ignores the news.


"European Union officials moved closer to hammering out a new aid package for Greece after Germany agreed to work with the European Central Bank to make sure plans to include private investors in a rescue don’t trigger a default.

Greek bonds gained and the cost of insuring the country’s debt against default tumbled yesterday after German Chancellor Angela Merkel withdrew her demand that bondholders be forced to shoulder a “substantial” burden in a rescue. She said she would work with the ECB to ensure the role of private investors remains voluntary to avoid triggering a default rating.


....The yield on Greece’s two-year bond, which topped 30 percent for the first time on June 16, fell 98 basis points to 28.79 percent. Credit-default swaps on Greece fell to 1,932.75 basis points, having risen as high as 2,237 basis points on June 16, according to CMA. The signs of flexibility from Germany sent the euro up as much as 1 percent to $1.4306."

 

Epic picture. I wish double "I" didn't obstruct the swine.

 

Mods, could you fix the poll:
Title should be changed to "Default" instead of "Survive"

instead of "1-3 Little..." should be "2-3 Little..."?

In addition, "at least" in the first answer should be removed to make things more precise.

Poll should be reset.

Or I could re-do the whole thing.

I was in a hurry typing it in, sorry.

Thanks!

p.s. i am not good with probabilities

Mods, nevermind! easier to redo it. the title is reversed too

 

I thought the other thread was a duplicate. Anyway, I am not posting another goat.

 

if you are implying that the parts still don't add up to 1 as i worded them, it is true. but one should make certain simple assumptions and then everything seems in order.

 

Haha, NO! Wording is good.

Just out of 2 near identical threads this one has more posts. So, I would naturally assume the thread with fewer posts was a duplicate... even though I appreciate the wording of the poll is much better in the other thread. (Perhaps you could add "default in 3 years" or "1 year" to be specific.)

 

this is not a scientific poll. i prefer to avoid extra words and specifics not to crowd the poll. yes, the expected default(s) should be assumed to take place reasonably soon (within 1-2 years).

 

I would hate to influence the artist in the process of creation... but "Funeral: How Many PIIGS Will Survive?" sounds much better for a sensationalist post than "Funeral: How Many PIIGS Will Default?"

"Funeral" kind of implies someone has to die. Default is not exactly "death".