My backtested system consistently beats the S&P500

Discussion in 'Professional Trading' started by StockTrader1985, May 8, 2007.

  1. sarcasm? :confused:

    otherwise, thank you
    #21     May 9, 2007
  2. I do not know what you mean by "legitimate".

    We might reproduce your simulation results if you fully disclose the method.

    Your trading results are approximately the same as results that I obtain using Standard And Poors 500 index tracking stock symbol SPY historic price data and a trend following method.

    You might make an allowance for slippage and commissions in your calculations.

    There are no tests that guarantee that any trading method will be profitable in the future.

    What seems legitimate to me

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    might not be legitimate to you.
    #22     May 9, 2007
  3. If you cannot answer this question...
    Then you are at the level...
    Of a dude that dropped out of freshman stats in the first semester at age 18.

    Why should anyone take you seriously?

    You should not even be trading your own money.
    Pros will just take it away... if you insist on playing.
    #23     May 9, 2007
  4. GTG


    You have to be careful when you use fundamental data for a backtest. A lot of the data gets revised after the fact, and the reported values in the database now, were unknowable at the time.
    #24     May 9, 2007

  5. BINGO!

    Nothing stellar here. I'd rather just dollar cost average into Vanguard's VFINX or just buy SPY a couple times per year. The results would be comperable to your results minus all the effort. My time's worth more than that.
    #25     May 9, 2007
  6. Excellent comments.
    #26     May 9, 2007
  7. Almost forgot....

    Now if you can find a system that can return me 11% per year above and beyond that of the SP 500......

    I've got some new clients that are looking for a place to throw some money.

    That's what I thought.
    #27     May 9, 2007
  8. i'm no quant guru but his results might also improve if he dollar cost averages throughout the year right?

    if the system is value based then test it against a value based large cap portfolio like the ishares s&p value etf.
    #28     May 9, 2007
  9. #29     May 9, 2007
  10. Everyone's systems backtests better than the S&P. Then they crash in walk-forward real world testing. So what else is new?
    #30     May 9, 2007