That's fair enough. Here is my MTD risk profile by way of comparison: Return 1.04% Ending Vami 1,010.35 Max Drawdown 2.02% Peak to Valley 08/02/21 - 08/11/21 Sharpe Ratio 1.36 Recovery Ongoing Sortino Ratio 2.07 Standard Deviation 0.85% Downside Deviation 0.56% Correlation - Beta - Alpha - Mean Return 0.07% Positive Periods 8 (53.33%) Negative Periods 7 (46.67%) His numbers certainly need to be looked at, but I advise the OP to run a market crash simulation if he can.
I would post my numbers,but you wouldn't believe them,and I do not run the stats you do. I make markets in low Delta options, have only momentary execution risk,and never have losses other than marks or my residual position I put on for a credit going to zero. On the residual positions I keep,they are all on for even or a credit and with alot of luck are home runs assuming I don't panic and take profits way too soon...Which I will Here is the catch...What I do comes and goes...its there for a month and can disappear for 6 months to a year.I trade hundreds of thousands of contracts per month,and 40 percent of my profits go to commisions.. Im hoping to morph into a directional/position trader,mainly so I don't have to trade 500x per day. But I wont be selling puts unless vol is thru the roof
I would believe them. You have a very good posting history. I think its good to be blown away here at ET every now and then. And its also very interesting to see how you state the limitations of the way you trade. So if you don't mind sharing, I'd love to see what is possible.
Ok...Im not terribly comfortable posting numbers when things go well as I do believe in a bit of humility... In the last 20 trading days I have made 32 to 38 percent(500k devoted to the trade,will go up to 1 mil plus as I am at max margin due to number of options) It's not a home run to some,but it was 100 percent riskless other than execution risk,I.e not getting legged...There is also a small possibility I make another 30 percent depending on MSFT rallying to 325 or higher within next 2 months.Should I leave the country and MSFT rally to 350,I would be up substantially more,but I am pretty dam sure I don't have it in me to let a winner ride like that.its my weakness.. I know it's not staggering,but it's riskless .With that said,I am 99 percent sure that this month's numbers are impossible to annualise.Ill be shocked if the trades last another month.. As I mentioned,once the position is established,it's on for a credit with the potential to make suvstantially more. I trade with very reasonable commissions which is essential.If I was still at IB,I couldn't trade in this manner,as my commish is probably 35 percent of my profits.. The style I trade right now is an absolute grind and literally groundhogs day...Same shit every day.... Ild live to divulge more,but it's obviously a "sensitive" subject.If I should hit a home run or burn myself out,I'll open up a bit more
Dude, the numbers do not matter, so long as they are REAL. I have been posting my real numbers in my journal for 3 years? 4 years? I cannot even remember when I started the thing. And I have posted 5-digits losses there. Would I have any compunction about posting 5 digit gains? NO! Lose the squeamishness, and get some guts. If your numbers are REAL, then there is nothing to be ashamed or "mewly" about. Nobody knows who the hell you are. But you will gain some serious forum cred if you post us the REAL. We want REAL meat. I have tens of video analogies I can post about this issue, but it is up to you. "Ok...Im not terribly comfortable posting numbers when things go well as I do believe in a bit of humility..." Au contraire. If anything, posting your winnings should give you even more confidence. Take a bit of pride in your accomplishments. Nothing wrong with that. If you are honest and true, people will applaud you, and admire your skills. Remember, honesty in this game is what counts. Check modesty at the door, and shoot for balls- on real. We, your viewers appreciate that above all else.
Please do share more if or when you feel comfortable. I personally find it beneficial. What you say also matches very well with what Dustin has shown. He has shown 100K plus days, but says exactly like you that these are the days that make the year, which are outliers, and that most days aren't like this, but you just gotta be present to capitalize on this. But 100% riskless is a very interesting variable. I'm not an options guy, so I doubt I could make any sense of more detail, but its still nevertheless an interesting point. With 35% of profits going to commish though, it sounds like its a lot of trial and error, not knowing which trade will work, and just having to put your hands into many cookie jars before you find a real winner. So is it fair to say that you really don't know which trade will work in advance, but you know that if you take enough trades and control your risk, you will end up profitable for the month? When Dustin shared his trades, it was interesting to see easily the 20 winner and losers, maybe even more losers, but those few wins that won big made for a very good day.
Not sure who Dustin is nor what style he is trading.I Never have big days,but I grind out apx 5k per day.I just looked at my account,and it was actually over 40 days (not 20)with zero risk. If I have one skill,it's being a very good market maker.I know before every trade,if my bid his hit or my offer lifted,I will make money.Not alot per trade,but a ton of trades.. My hit rate is 100 percent,my Sharpe is off the charts(not that I calculate it),but I know full well this does not last for long..It will completely vaporize The key point is I do not view this as great trading.Its good market making. Very different than Dustin ( I just read his thread, thank you). I don't want to take over the OP's thread,perhaps I will start my own.
Then DO IT! Don't be shy! Do not be squeamish! You will get more respect for yourself if you post an honest journal. Look how well it worked for me!
Lol...I don't think you truly understand what I am currently doing.Its exceedingly mechanical with zero opinion on what I am trading. I'm arbing a small inefficiency until it disappears
I am squarely interested in the delta neutrality side of it, profits and losses matter less. Can you share how you hedge prior to entering a trade? I am guessing conditional or box trades only? When you say execution risk, I am guessing legs of your box getting filled and not others?