My amzn & Google naked put sell is In deep red . How to play it on Monday to recover the loss.

I trade, don't read a crystal ball.

 

You’re fast enough, dude It’s a simple conditional probability. You have P(nomination) = 40% and P(presidency) = 25%, which means that P(presidency|nomination) = P(presidency)/P(nomination) = 25%/40% = 62.5%.

It’s from predictit.com from a few weeks ago, I don’t follow these markets as much as I should. Also, I am not saying that’s what’s going to happen, simply that it’s what the market is forecasting. Of course, if you think it’s wrong, you’d wanna buy Bernie nomination and short his presidency in a ratio.

 

Does it mean he has a ~60% chance of becoming my next president?

Can I use the same logic to trade options?

 

We're f*cked either way. Trump or this Miami transplant who wears knee-high socks and flip flops in the pool.

 

62.5 obv conditional on nomination.

 

So if I want to bet that he will be the next president, what is the odd, what is my risk:reward?

 

I am dense. He has a 62.5% chance he will be elected if he wins the nomination?

 

I wanted lube and a warning though

 

Exactly, that’s what is implied in the betting markets.

I just looked, he’s now at 38% to win the presidency and his nomination is at 66%. You can do the math yourself to get the updated conditional probability

https://www.predictit.org/markets/13/Prez-Election

 

it’s a (delimited; to 100) binary. 62.5 pays 100. Binaries are probabilities.