This thread is a continuation of "My Option Trades.... part 2." No reason to have hundreds of pages of expired trades hanging around. That was the reason I initiated part 2 last year. Hence, as we begin another new year, we begin with: "My 2013 Option Trades.... part 3" I'll post a link to "My Option Trades.... part 2",.... for those who wish to review that threads past trades: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3713364#post3713364
Sold puts on $10 ALLT for Feb. Credit $0.20 Annualized % return........... 16 - 17% otm safety cushion... 26% http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ALLT&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=b&c= Until today, I felt the company was over valued. After todays 26% drop down to $13.52, it is reasonably valued at my $10 strike.... (BE price $9.80) Technically, there is tech support in the $13 - $13.50 area, per the 2 year chart above. Hence the reason I initiate the trade now. And support again in the $10 area. Company is financially healthy, with plenty of cash and no debt, but is having issues with inventory turnover. Hence the investing opportunity after todays large % drop in price, (and I assume spike in IV).
With 2 weeks remaining until Jan expy, below is an update of my Jan trades, initially posted on the Part 2 thread. The other Jan naked puts were all closed early for a profit. Below are the trades that remain open. They are a mix of otm, itm, and ntm. VOLC.... 22.5 put WMS..... 15 covd call NUS...... 30 put NTES..... 40 put NTES..... 37 naked call, with a BE price of "$41", due to $4 of put and call credits. UEPS..... 7 put with a $6 naked call on it for April. Hoping it becomes covered call in 2 weeks. ALLT.... 12.5 put.... (also a $10 put for Feb.)
The indicators I use to determine whether the market is reasonably valued, or over/under valued,.... are telling me the market is over valued. That being, I'm not seeing any current trades I like. Given my extensive stock watch list, I should see some that are at least close to a price I'd like to consider. But I'm not. I hate sitting in cash, but I hate getting into over priced stocks even more. I'm not saying the market is going to drop. Too risky to short the market. I'm just saying I'm not getting in until it does. Or until an individual stock I like has a pretty bad day. It's really shocking, that I have not seen any trade I like since my $10 ALLT, a week ago.
Sold puts on $10 ARO for April Credit $0.40 Annualized % return......... 15% otm safety cushion 17% BE price $9.60 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ARO&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=b&c= Technically there is support with the stock trading in the $11.80 - 12.20 area, per the 2 year chart. When it traded there, I initiated the trade, at the open. Company is down on current outlook and rise in inventory. But that is what's creating this investing opportunity, for this reasonably valued company (at my $10 strike), and financially healthy company. If it were not financially healthy, with no debt, and reasonably valued, at my BE price of $9.60, and tech supported.... I would NOT take a chance investing in a retailer with their current issues.
What's your thoughts on NVDA? It looks to me like its hit a bottom, has lots of cash on hand. Small short float.
Sold puts on $11 NVDA for March. Credit $0.31 Annualized % return....17% I checked out the stocks fundamentals days ago, so I don't recall the details. But given that I initiated an order, one can assume they were acceptable. The 2 year chart below shows tech support in the $11.75 - 12 area. Hence my strike at $11, and in initiaion of the trade when the stock dipped under $12. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NVDA&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=b&c= If the stock continues to drop, and the credit continues to rise, I'll consider a similar strike for Feb.
Sold puts on $40 WCG for March. Credit $1.10 Annualized % return..... 17% otm cushion... 13% The 2 year chart below shows tech support in the $45 - 46 are,... where it is currently trading. And support again at my strike at $40 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=WCG&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=b&c= I checked the fundamentals days ago, so I don't recall the details, I obviously thought the company was financially healthy and reasonably valued at my strike.
Decided to add the Feb $11 NVDA to my inventory. Credit $0.18 Annualized % return.....19% Thus, I now have an $11 strike for Feb and March. I may close the Feb early, as earnings come out 2 days before expy. But we'll see. I don't usually double up on my stocks and strikes, but since I'm really not seeing much else to invest in, I'm bending my rules a bit. I generally only double up if I can get a lower strike. In this case, it's for reasons off "laddering" my investments, so I don't over concentrate in one month.