Discussion in 'Economics' started by PAPA ROACH, Jan 29, 2008.
Dragons go faster on the way down. it's like trying to hold a tornado in a snow storm with wet hands!
You just have to watch for the signs and start buying when panic really sets in and ride it straight back up on the rebound!
Watch for the signs!
I know this isn't written by Mauldin, but given his bearish stance over the last 6-7 years and his own forecasting track record, I'm guessing that he uses this type of research / opinion to formulate his forecasts. Thus.....
Mauldin isn't a trader though. I have read his weekly letters since late 2003, and had dinner with him and another guy in 2004. He said at that time the economy would grow for a few years and the FED would have to take rates up high enough again to fight the next downturn, which he said would probably much worse than the one we had just come out of. His letters for the most part have illustrated how much instability was building in the market with excess liquidity and the housing bubble. Timing was the bitch. But make no mistake about it, he did say that is was going to be a housing led recession that could get quite ugly. Early in the game he outlined the problem with the CDO's and CDS's etc etc. But never did I read where he predicted a time and give a "sell" signal. He just presented all the evidence of the game.
I've never met him or spoken with him. Have got a couple of his books though.
In the site I linked in, many of his forecasts are for a long bear market in 2002 or a long sideways market. Maybe he had his clients positioned differently....
I guess I'm simply trying to point out that an independent site thinks he's not a great forecaster. That may be taken as a slur, it's not meant to be. I think forecasting is very difficult and couldn't do any better.
He's not alone either.
Stephen Roach - Morgan Stanley " financial armageddon in 2004"
David Schwartz end of 05 - bear market, end of 06 - bear market , end of 07 bear market.
David Rosenberg at Merrill Lynch has been all over the place in the last 13 months.
However, I did enjoy the article so thanks for posting. Lots of interesting points.
Separate names with a comma.