MUCH WORSE than The Great Depression http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=255805&t=01002130057764754273 September 08, 2009 There are silly Fools out there that try to compare The Great Depression to "The Great Recession." WTF is The Great Recession?....we are still at the beginning of whatever we are in as debt is just starting to default moving from sub prime into prime....and prime is much bigger than sub prime. Sometimes I have to hold back from laughing if it wasn't so pathetic that our nation is so arrogant and indifferent to the import of our massive deficit against a backdrop of evaporating tax receipts. In The Great Depression, we were a nation with a rising manufacturing manufacturing base with innovative industries and government was a very small percentage of GDP. Not only that, our government operated surpluses and our citizens had very little debt as conumption was restrained and a much smaller percentage of our GDP. Just two years into the downturn and we are seeing declines NEVER seen at the worst of The Great Depression such as new home sales down 80% and land values down over 80% in many areas. TODAY, WE ARE SIMPLY A CONSUMPTION BASED NATION THAT PRODUCED VERY LITTLE RELATIVE TO ITS CURRENT STANDARD OF LIVING. The joke is we are seeing such distressing results so early in the game AND with government running an unprecedented deficit. In any con game, so long as the confidence remains, the game continues. But when trust is gone, the game collapses. We are seeing revenues to the S&P already down 17%....unemployment approaching 20%.....and 100,000,000 Americans dependent on government for their monthly check WITH A $2 TRILLION DOLLAR DEFICIT. You can only run multi trillion dollar deficits and spend on consuption so long before the rest of the world calls BS. Once that happens, they will demand payment in a different currency as they can just as easily print for their populations to consume as we can.......you can only have a rich uncle support you for so long before he tells you to get a job....or he runs out of money. The BIG problem is that we have very little to produce that can generate foreign currency relative to our current standard of living. Our number 1, 2, and 3 exports by container volume is trash. We have shipped overseas much of our manufacturing edge and now technological edge as well. The only thing supporting our consumption over recent years has been private borrowing and government spending. Not that the bankers have cut back dramatically on private lending.....revenues to government have evaporated and massive deficits are the only thing keeping the ship from sinking. Not too far off, if government keeps running a growing defiict, our currency will be worthless and many Amercans could face very difficult times because most of our vocations support a consumption based economy and not production....even mine as an attorney, or my friends who are doctors, architects, CEOs. accountants, psychologists, tech workers, and professors, At this point based on current Zombulation policies, barring some miracle new technology, it is not a question whether this will be worse than The Great Depression....it is simply a question of how much worse......as we are already there in a number of mearures even with massive deficits. 9.09 arrives once someone calls BS....the UN sent a warning shot last night......just watch how the rest of the nations jump on board as we move through September.
I remember the late 1980s/early-mid 1990s with the collapse of the Soviet Union, the entire economies of the ex-USSR had to be re-geared around acquiring 'hard currency', to pay for imports. People who couldn't generate economic activity to acquire 'hard currency' (ironically, then, US dollars), basically, went hungry. Wouldn't surprise me to see such fate fall to the United States sooner or later. Foreigners are eventually going to demand that the goods and services they export to the USA, are repaid in goods and services exported from the USA (plus repayment for goods and services previously imported). When people start going hungry, then a lot of very interesting things start happening.
You're not looking far enough "ahead". Wars generally follow recession/depression. The size of the war is similar to the size of the preceeding recession/depression. People had better hope that military service doesn't become compulsory for all ages and genders if and when hostilities breakout. :eek:
That sounds about like goverment, make the old people go fight in wars. That way we won't have to pay there Social Security. Make them fight with sling shots that way they no they will die.
So, THAT'S how Obama is going to live up to his campaign promise of "getting rid of Social Security and Medicare in 10 years"?
Fortunately, the U.S. lacks the political will to bring back the draft and more importantly, imports way too much steel and oil as well as lacking the requisite industrial base to support a multi-theater, global war. A more effective strategy to ride this out would be to nationalize agribusiness, water and electricity and to develop a national version of Boston's "Big Dig" for employment.
Think about it seriously though. War is about the only thing the US can export anymore. Munitions is the only manufacturing industry for which the US has maintained an industrial policy at the national level, and that we still dominate. Frightening ...
I've heard more than just a few political analysts as well as economists mention War as an antidote to depression, even hyperinflation. Scary. The equation goes like this: Bad Govt. Spending = Depression/Hyperinflation = War.
War for the sake of war? To accomplish what? Historically a country "goes to war" against another in an effort to claim their resources and land.. and enslave their people in one way or another. And then there's the "religion" thingy. How could any of this apply to the USA? We going to war against Saudi Arabia so we can claim their oil fields? There's a financial cost to war.. and we're already broke. In order to profit and improve our situation, we'd have to win more financial resources for winning the war than it cost us to wage it. How could that work for the USA at this time?
Some believe this was a motivating factor in Iraq. Iran has the 2nd largest reserves of oil and natural gas in the world.