msty thread - YieldMax etf product

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by johnarb, May 16, 2025 at 6:23 AM.

  1. demoncore

    demoncore


    Falling into money isn't the same as understanding. I weep for your children.
     
  2. I just put together a spreadsheet that calculates yield based on start date...I think I have it right for the last 12 months.

    TSLY
    Start date 16-May-2024 16-May-2025
    Price 14.87
    Investment $100,000
    Shares 6,724
    Unrealized gains/loss -$38,197.71
    Dividends received $72,718.22
    NAV $134,520.51
    Monthly income $5,593.71

    CONY
    Start date 16-May-2024 16-May-2025
    Price 20.79
    Investment $100,000
    Shares 4,810
    Unrealized gains/loss -$57,816.26
    Dividends received $64,267.92
    NAV $106,451.66
    Monthly income $5,355.66

    NVDY
    Start date 16-May-2024 16-May-2025
    Price 26.68
    Investment $100,000
    Shares 3,748
    Unrealized gains/loss -$36,694.15
    Dividends received $59,024.74
    NAV $122,330.58
    Monthly income $4,918.73

    YMAX
    Start date 16-May-2024 16-May-2025
    Price 20.03
    Investment $100,000
    Shares 4,992
    Unrealized gains/loss -$30,703.94
    Dividends received $40,810.28
    NAV $110,106.34
    Weekly income $1,073.95

    MSTY
    Start date 16-May-2024 16-May-2025
    Price 31.84
    Investment $100,000
    Shares 3,140
    Unrealized gains/loss -$27,198.49
    Dividends received $94,991.83
    NAV $167,793.34
    Monthly income $7,915.99


    The longer you hold generally the better the return because the dividends keep rolling in. Here with CONY, the unrealized gains/losses haven't changed much, but you get 6 more months of dividends with the earlier start date.

    CONY
    Start date 6-Oct-2023 16-May-2025
    Price 19.27
    Investment $100,000
    Shares 5,189
    Unrealized gains/loss -$54,696.42
    Dividends received $142,219.51
    NAV $187,523.09
    Monthly income $7,485.24


    I am only interested in monthly income. I ignore unrealized losses because paper losses are as meaningless as paper gains...even more so when collecting dividends. btw this is not my personal scenario as I actually have capital gains on most if not all positions currently...this is just an example buying 1 year ago.
     
    Last edited: May 16, 2025 at 2:12 PM
    johnarb likes this.
  3. I understand my GT4 is going to be paid out in 6 months versus 6 years. :)
     
    Last edited: May 16, 2025 at 1:44 PM
  4. johnarb

    johnarb

    Yes, mstr has outperformed msty, even from the very start of msty and mstr has also outperformed bitcoin

    msty is an investment for income-generation, it's not competing with mstr, but it's competing with something like real estate rental property

    Compare $230k into msty today, 10,000 shares to rental property investment

    next month, you will get at the very lowest $13k income, as high as over >$40k income, last month it was $23k income

    If you put the same amount in real estate, airbnb or long term rental, how much will you get per month?

    You have expenses for maintenance, plumber, electrician, landscaping, insurance, mortgage, property tax, you will have to deduct

    The amount of money going into msty lately are getting scary, people are selling their rental properties, taking out loans, moving their retirement portfolio, their savings...

    mstr is the basis of msty

    for the sake of all the msty investors, let us pray for mstr as I'm also invested heavily into mstr call options :D


    upload_2025-5-17_1-45-35.png
     
    wxytrader likes this.
  5. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    I am not sure MSTY is going to be around in 5 years. Also, there is going to be years when MSTR goes down, so you have to spread the profitable years around.
     
    johnarb likes this.
  6. Have you been asleep? MSTR dropped like 50% lol from the highs, and MSTY held up just fine. In 5 years on 100k you would have collected over 600k in dividends at the current coupon lol...still a win!
     
    johnarb likes this.
  7. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    The thing to watch with YieldMax ETFs is nav erosion. Over time the price of the ETF will go down (as well as it's actual net asset value). Effectively YieldMax is paying you back with your own money.

    If you simply took the money and invested in the underlying instruments your total return would be much greater than what YieldMax is providing (even with the eye-popping distributions).

    MSTR-vs-MSTY.jpg
     
  8. Welcome to the discussion 10 months ago :)
    It is not "effectiviely" paying you back with your own money lol.

    "The distribution may include a combination of ordinary dividends, capital gain, and return of investor capital, which may decrease a fund’s NAV and trading price over time."

    As mentioned NAV erosion is essential to maintaining the dividend otherwise it would be unsustainable. This isn't about capital gains, CAGR or even preserving capital...its about generating income.

    Here are the results I got with my spreadsheet. Keep in mind these numbers are following a substantial downturn in the market over the past 6 months for the underlyings of these instruments.

     
    Last edited: May 16, 2025 at 3:11 PM
    johnarb likes this.
  9. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    If you want to generate income while depreciating the underlying asset towards zero while paying big fees then just purchase an annuity -- at least the income will be constant every month.

    Income investors are best off looking for consistent dividend growth with the possibility of capital appreciation (in equities) or fixed interest payments from bonds that beat the inflation rate with smaller risk of underlying asset decline (compared to stocks).

    Tax planning (at least in the U.S.) comes into all of this as well. Qualified vs. non-qualified dividends in taxable accounts has tax payment bracket consequences. "Return of capital" distributions which are not taxed sound grand however the impact of "return of capital" distributions when the underlying asset is sold (or the "capital" goes down to zero and the distributions are fully taxable as income) many times causes tax headaches in taxable accounts. Especially for U.S. retirees who need to worry about Social Security taxation rates (based on total/other income), higher IRMAA payments for Medicare, etc. -- implying that consistent, understandable, planned yield is paramount to a multi-year financial success and tax strategy.
     

  10. Income is much more important than capital. Capital gains is over rated...you don't even get to use it until you sell and then that's the end of it. You want dividend growth from these yields?? lol...so I should invest in a growth fund for 12% yield maybe, drip into it for 30 years just to make what I am making now? That's 30 years of lost income! Besides, you can grow your dividends by investing more capital.


    Investment Scenario: $500,000 Each
    Bitcoin (BTC)
    • Purchase Price: $62,000

    • Current Price: $103,693

    • BTC Acquired: 8.0645 BTC

    • Current Value: 8.0645 BTC × $103,693 ≈ $836,700

    • Capital Gain: $836,700 - $500,000 = $336,700 (+67.3%)
    MSTY
    • Purchase Price: $22.00

    • Current Price: $22.94

    • Shares Acquired: 22,727 shares

    • Current Value: 22,727 × $22.94 ≈ $521,400

    • Capital Gain: $521,400 - $500,000 = $21,400 (+4.3%)

    • Annual Dividends: $2.35/month × 12 months × 22,727 shares ≈ $639,500

    • Total Return: $521,400 (current value) + $639,500 (dividends) = $1,160,900

    • Total Gain: $1,160,900 - $500,000 = $660,900 (+132.2%)

     
    Last edited: May 16, 2025 at 3:28 PM