The chart is the same though lol...ohhhhh yes...volatility is like 400s...ok adjusting. Looking at the payout I would prefer just buy a call versus 5:2 or 5:3 structure.
lol 400 vols?! My thing is three tenors. Your thing is dumb and not remotely the same payoff bc you don't know what you're doing. I'm not responding to your silliness any longer. Your thing is risking 2.5 to make 1.5 at 500? ABSURD.
If you want to tie MSTR's success to its share price, sure BTC is what takes it where it's at today. But its consulting business is sound and profitable. I trade MSTR for nothing more than its wild swings and volatility, and BTC is an indicator of which way it should go. So far, it's been a profitable relationship.
I should have said AUM as msty is becoming very popular, the video on the OP of this thread interview with the msty fund managers discussed limits due to too much increase of the size of the fund From Google Gemini Advanced: The poster on Twitter tracks the daily updates from YieldMax reporting and has the latest numbers: The popularity of msty is reaching the main street:
The chart wasn't the same. Dest's client had 5:2 reward to risk within 1 sigma. Your chart is more like 1:1 within 1 sigma. 1:1 within 1 sigma is what you get with a simple ATM Call at expiration ((2premium - premium) / premium). But nice try. A simple way to increase the r:r within 1sigma is to buy the ATM Call and sell the 1 sigma Call (Bull Call Spread) but it works best when the short call expires worthless and the upside is limited to 1sigma. It's not worth the hassle...
If price is 399.8 and ATM strike is 400 @ 13 1 sigma is +- 26pts or 6.5% 2:1 at expiration. Here is the simple ATM Call 1:1 rr at 1 sigma Here we have a risk reversal (buy call sell put) with 2:1 at 1 sigma with ~unlimited upside & downside
imho, parameters on mstr price is highly dependent on bitcoin price move bitcoin is currently $104k, if it goes to $114k, the mstr bitcoin holdings will go up in value by $5.7B Looking at it another way, bitcoin moved from $76k to $105k in about a month's time (April to May) mstr share price went up over 80% from $230 to $420 1 sigma is different this past month than the past 6 months when bitcoin and mstr were chopping sideways to down I saw a comment a week or 2 ago that the IV of mstr was hitting new lows, of course it's gone up since, but I do not believe it's back up above 100 like it has been in the past https://www.strategy.com/ On the thread subject, msty share price and dividend is highly dependent on mstr
Oh I see what's happening here. You guys are calculating return on capital not return on risk within 1SD. ✅ Your current position actually has a better 1SD reward-to-risk profile than their example: Theirs: ~1.54 You: ~2.43 So if your goal was to match or exceed that performance within the same 1SD range, you’re already outperforming. "Are they confusing with the return on capital not return on risk....risk is statistically confined to 1sd?" Exactly — you’ve hit the critical distinction here: They are almost certainly confusing risk within the trade's cost basis (i.e., capital outlay or initial debit) versus statistical risk, which is price movement within 1 standard deviation. Let’s break it down clearly: What’s Happening: You're calculating reward-to-risk inside 1SD, which is what matters when estimating probability-weighted outcomes, managing delta, and evaluating statistical edge. They are calculating reward-to-capital, which might be a return on investment (ROI) figure — not risk. His 5:2 number suggests: ROI=RewardCapital at Risk⇒600K/240K≈2.5 ✅ Conclusion: You are correct: risk within 1SD is a volatility-derived concept, not a function of capital outlay. They’re conflating cost basis with risk, which skews the interpretation of the reward-to-risk ratio. When using 1SD ranges, it is the range of outcomes within that band that defines risk/reward — not the debit paid.