msty thread - YieldMax etf product

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by johnarb, May 16, 2025 at 6:23 AM.

  1. wxytrader

    wxytrader

    Probably not, but I had a spreadsheet that would calculate it.

    C - P = S - K e^{-rT}

    What protects you from being pinned between strikes?

    I'll ask chat gpt because it doesn't berate me. :)

    3. Is There a Pin Risk on the Short Leg?

    Yes, pin risk exists if the underlying settles exactly at the short strike at expiration.

    Pin risk means:

    You're short options (like the two middle legs in the fly).

    The underlying settles exactly at that strike on expiration.

    You don’t know if they’ll be assigned/exercised until after the close.

    It can leave you with unwanted long or short stock exposure on Monday morning.
     
  2. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    Let's expand your education with some further AI information. Once again demonstrating your statement about about an investment in Home Depot not beating inflation to be completely false. Even if you did not re-invest dividends you significantly beat inflation. The dividends as a separate component themselves greatly beat inflation.

    If you did not re-invest dividends then did Home Depot stock beat inflation? Show the figures.

    Yes, even without reinvesting dividends, Home Depot (NYSE: HD) stock has significantly outpaced inflation from 1994 to 2025. Here's a detailed breakdown:

    Home Depot Stock Performance (1994–2025)
    This represents a price increase of approximately 6,300% over 31 years.Wikipedia+2In 2013 Dollars+2In 2013 Dollars+2

    Inflation Over the Same Period
    • Cumulative Inflation (1994–2025): Approximately 115.79%

    • Equivalent Purchasing Power: $1 in 1994 is equivalent to about $2.16 in 2025 In 2013 Dollars
    Real Returns Comparison
    Even without reinvesting dividends, the nominal increase in Home Depot's stock price far exceeds the cumulative inflation rate.

    • Nominal Price Increase: From $5.95 to $380.78 per share

    • Inflation-Adjusted Price: $5.95 in 1994 dollars is equivalent to approximately $12.86 in 2025 dollars

    • Real Price Increase: $380.78 / $12.86 ≈ 29.6 timesThe Motley Fool+3StatMuse+3Digrin+3
    This means that, in real terms, the stock's value increased nearly 30-fold, even without considering dividends.

    Annualized Returns
    • Nominal Annualized Return: Approximately 14.86% over 31 years

    • Real Annualized Return: Approximately 12.35% after adjusting for inflationIn 2013 Dollars+1In 2013 Dollars+1
    Conclusion
    Home Depot's stock has dramatically outperformed inflation from 1994 to 2025, even without reinvesting dividends. The substantial increase in stock price alone has provided investors with significant real returns, preserving and enhancing purchasing power over the long term.

    If you're interested in a comparison with other major indices or companies over the same period, feel free to ask!

    =========================================================

    What is the total for dividends from Home Depot over the years from 1994. Did the dividend returns beat the rate of inflation?


    Yes, Home Depot (NYSE: HD) has not only preserved but significantly increased investors' purchasing power through its dividend payments since 1994. Here's a detailed breakdown:

    Total Dividends Paid (1994–2025)
    From 1994 through 2025, Home Depot has paid a cumulative total of approximately $70.09 per share in dividends, adjusted for stock splits .Companies Market Cap

    Inflation Comparison
    Over the same period, the U.S. experienced a cumulative inflation rate of approximately 115.79%, meaning that $1 in 1994 is equivalent to about $2.16 in 2025 .

    Real Value of Dividends
    To assess whether the dividend returns beat inflation, we can adjust the total dividends for inflation:

    This means that an investor who held a single share of Home Depot stock since 1994 would have received dividends with a purchasing power of approximately $151.39 in today's dollars.

    Conclusion
    Home Depot's dividend payments have not only kept pace with inflation but have substantially outpaced it, providing investors with significant real returns. This performance underscores the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders through consistent and growing dividend payments.

    If you're interested in a comparison with other major indices or companies over the same period, feel free to ask!
     
  3. wxytrader

    wxytrader

    Well I don't need a formula to tell me when an option is under priced. :)
     
  4. wxytrader

    wxytrader

    Going forward, do you really think Home Depot is going to outperform Bitcoin? Good luck with that.
     
    johnarb likes this.
  5. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    It will outperform MSTY in the long term. So will many other equities.
     
  6. wxytrader

    wxytrader

    Lol its going to out perform 40k per month???? Home Depot would have to increase by $40 every month...it would have to be $700 by the end of the year...it would have to be $3200 in 5 years ( rough math)

    By the looks of the chart, it could be range bound for the next year or two.
     
  7. demoncore

    demoncore

    If BTC tanks they will have to reduce the div massively and beta to BTC the ETF will drop. It will overshoot as they pay a debit for diagonalized synthetic fly structure. This thing could easily go down 2-3X beta.
     
    johnarb likes this.
  8. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    It appears that most of the cheerleaders for these YieldMax ETFs and other very risky investments are younger people who have never been through a sustained bear market during their active investing lifetime.
     
  9. wxytrader

    wxytrader

    Oh here we go... What I would call risky is holding a half million dollars in a company. Haven't seen a sustained bear market? Have you never owned Bitcoin?
     
    johnarb likes this.
  10. wxytrader

    wxytrader

    We just had a major downturn... Btc dropped from 108k down to 79k? Which by the way I called months and months before it happened...but regardless msty held up just fine... I mean forget Bitcoin, mstr crashed down 50% since the highs in November.
     
    johnarb likes this.