Vols dropped 600-700 beeps bc they're marking it to Monday. Oh Lord, you are so fucking easy. It's like child abuse.
5.36 ---> 6.12 and the bid has gone from .10 to .15...the delta is .65. Highway robbery! My sheet has .31 mid. Step 1. Break move into chunks Underlying moved +0.76. Let’s chop it into 4 chunks of ~0.19 each. Step 2. Approximate deltas by level 5.36 → 5.55: delta ~0.42 5.55 → 5.74: delta ~0.50 5.74 → 5.93: delta ~0.58 5.93 → 6.12: delta ~0.65 Step 3. Option P&L per chunk ΔP=Δ×ΔS\Delta P = \Delta \times \Delta SΔP=Δ×ΔS First chunk: 0.42 × 0.19 ≈ 0.08 Second chunk: 0.50 × 0.19 ≈ 0.10 Third chunk: 0.58 × 0.19 ≈ 0.11 Fourth chunk: 0.65 × 0.19 ≈ 0.12 Total ≈ 0.41 Step 4. Add to starting premium Open = 0.10 0.41 = 0.51 (delta-only fair, no vol/theta adjustments) Step 5. Adjust for reality IV slide (say 3–4 vols down): -0.12 to -0.15 1 day theta bleed: -0.05 Adjusted fair ≈ 0.31–0.34
They can mark it however they like, but the forward surface can’t hide forever. — Come Monday they’ll have to pay the real number.
Forward surface. You're an embarrassment. The vols were 102 when I first responded to this thread and now they are 95. dgamma/dvol is the moment that relates to time as synthetic vol. Translation? You're fucked. It warms my heart that you're getting hosed. It's hilarious that the stockl has rallied 10% in a single day and you still lost money long the calls. Vols will not reset to make you whole. ah hahahaha Canuck loserrrr.
These are ITM plays — the vol games don’t matter. Btw I could’ve booked $600 PnL all day today What you really should be focusing on is my trading prowess in timing this rally, LOL. I spotted the setup Wednesday evening. I figured they might catch on — maybe the move would start pre-market or the ask would get bumped up — but it held off just long enough. Anyway we'll see you on Monday what Bitcoin does over the weekend.... I'd rather pass on $600 and risk losing $1600 than leave 8k on the table.
It's 30-delta. ITM? The guy that can't sum buying at a credit to open and selling at a debit to close thinks that a 30D call is ITM.
?? It’s an in the money play, lol… meaning I’m buying OTM with the expectation it goes ITM. In other words, I’m expecting intrinsic value to drive the profits, not extrinsic. I really hope you’re just being deliberately obtuse here — with only 8 DTE, this trade is all about intrinsic value.
Forward surface. You couldn't explain that with a gun to your head. You could not appear dumber if you tried. Surface refers to vol-smile. Forward surface refers to vol across verts x tenors. Think moneyness as an additional dimension. The guy who thinks you subtract a credit buy and debit sale will come back with "duh, I already know that it's child's play." Forward surface. He's in the front end with zero skew. The thing is 5 trading days out so there is no carry. There is literally no utility in "forward surface" as you imply in your attempt to appear knowledgeable. It's meaningless. Gibberish. You're not referring to rates or skew/smile bc they don't exist. The thing is a week out and vols are razor flat. You're possibly worse than MB. He doesn't profess to understand anything.
Irrelevant. Monday MSTU price will be the determining factor...not vol. ITM and none of that shit matters. All the vol knowledge in the world won't help you get ahead of trades...only react to them after the move.