MSTU long term position

Discussion in 'Trading' started by wxytrader, Mar 4, 2025.

  1. Ok well the plan is to sell my latest round of shares @ $3.89 using the LIFO method for my accounting...so Last In First Out. I'm expecting MSTU to retrace up to $6-$7 next week, so will sell of my $3.89 LIFO shares and collect a tidy profit while opening up some margin.
     
    #31     Mar 13, 2025
    johnarb likes this.
  2. nitrene

    nitrene

    The math is the math. These leveraged instruments are really only beneficial when the trend is on your side.

    At least it's only 2X vs 3X. In the 12 month downturn of the 2022 bear market FNGU dropped 97% because going long high P/E tech stocks in mouth of a 35% QQQ drop was suicidal.

    An interesting strategy is buying MSTY & shorting MSTR (SMST, -2X MSTR) when the trend is down. You still collect the vol dividend but you down lose money on the equity. Of course you have to reverse the positions when the trend changes.

    I used this strategy in 2023 when rates were rising. I was long some junk bond ETFs but with rates rising the value would keep dropping if the rates went up so I bought some TMV which is -3X 20 yr bonds to hedge that position.
     
    #32     Mar 14, 2025
    johnarb likes this.
  3. Any equity is really only only beneficial when the trend is on your side. The historical price action shows that this will 2x recover with MSTR. I have found that these short instruments never perform 1:1 so there is really no point...

    Look at BITO/BITI:

    upload_2025-3-14_4-54-28.png

    No matter what BITO does BITI price just drops lol.
     
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2025
    #33     Mar 14, 2025
    johnarb likes this.
  4. johnarb

    johnarb

    I think with mstr if holding shares in 100 increments, could sell the weeklies covered call, or during up days in a downtrend, maybe atm plus or minus 2 points

    mstr has a high iv premium
     
    #34     Mar 14, 2025

  5. All you know it all punters lol who are against adding to a losing position...since doubling down, my position is almost at a break even today from being down huge. :)

    @johnarb get's it...
     
    #35     Mar 24, 2025
    johnarb likes this.
  6. cesfx

    cesfx

    Almost at breakeven. Genius.

    Nobody ever died breaking even.
     
    #36     Mar 24, 2025
  7. taowave

    taowave

    Break Even??? Sounds about right...

    Just think where you would be without Elliot Wave guiding you





     
    #37     Mar 24, 2025
  8. Dude within a couple weeks I basically salvaged the position...similar to the stock repair strategy. If I add in premium received I am up now. I am going to wait to see if we continue with this retrace and sell a call against it. :)

    Without doubling down it would be too otm to make decent premium...tempted to sell itm to lock in my profits.
     
    #38     Mar 24, 2025
    johnarb likes this.
  9. taowave

    taowave

    Like clockwork....

    You take another 50 percent hickey,double down and then look to sell "a call" to limit the upside...




     
    #39     Mar 24, 2025
    johnarb likes this.
  10. johnarb

    johnarb

    I get it waxy, but risks and rewards go together, adding risks by doubling down works when it goes up but not when it continues to go down or stay down or in the case of options, lack of gamma/IV spike

    Doubling down on a losing position has its limits... I believe even that French dude Martin Gail eventually went bankrupt :(


    upload_2025-3-24_23-32-21.png

    upload_2025-3-24_23-34-52.png
     
    #40     Mar 24, 2025