MSTR -- To get out or not...

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by The_Krakenite, Feb 26, 2024.

  1. Be nice if 61 or 62 held.

    *makes sign of the cross*.
     
    #111     Mar 19, 2024
    johnarb and jbusse like this.
  2. Thank you God.

    I will do one good deed a day,as agreed.

    :D
     
    #112     Mar 19, 2024
    johnarb likes this.
  3. johnarb

    johnarb

    Thank you God!

    fomc meeting was very good today, sounds like clear sailing for $100,000/btc before eoy

     
    #113     Mar 20, 2024
    semperfrosty and NoahA like this.
  4. :D:D Im volunteering at the soup kitchen as we speak! :D:D
     
    #114     Mar 20, 2024
    johnarb and jbusse like this.
  5. johnarb

    johnarb

    mstr at $122,285 per share when bitcoin hits $1,000,000/btc

    I won't be holding any mstr or options when that happens, but that would be very nice for all the mstr employees and shareholders


     
    #115     Mar 21, 2024
    semperfrosty likes this.
  6. My brain struggles to comprehend such rapid appreciation,but to give a recent example from the crypto world(and 'the one that got away' for me)Arcblock:
    upload_2024-3-22_1-52-19.png


    About 11 cents in mid December and $2.25 on 23rd Feb.

    This is not a pump and dump project,been around since 2019 and is backed by a bunch of PHD's.

    I use it to illustrate that rapid appreciation can happen in an instant.Its also a good reminder to be wary of trying to time anything in this space.So easy to wake up and have missed the bus.
     
    #116     Mar 21, 2024
    johnarb likes this.
  7. Seems the comments section turned into quite a heated topic over at Seeking Alpha on this one. :D

    MicroStrategy: A Bad Deal For Investors
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4679576-microstrategy-bad-deal-for-investors

    • MicroStrategy is the largest corporate owner of Bitcoin and just raised more than $600M in additional funds through convertible bonds to buy BTC.
    • The firm also offers business intelligence/analytics solutions and targets the enterprise segment for its services.
    • Holding a large amount of Bitcoin on its balance sheet creates unique asset concentration risks for MicroStrategy.
    • MSTR share price has decoupled from the Bitcoin price, indicating bubble territory. BTC enthusiasts also have no reason to buy Bitcoin through a corporate structure.
    • At a BTC price of $62k, I believe shares of MicroStrategy have approximately 30% downside.
     
    #117     Mar 23, 2024
  8. johnarb

    johnarb

    Nice! Looks like you made profits, belated congratulations!

    I couldn't really understand your position, looked like you had 30 puts, then went long 500 shares @1500,, if the puts were entered (near) atm, you were short 1500 delta?

    Way out of my options knowledge, which is why I buy and hold, go long calls or puts only

    But ngl, last week was painful with btc going down a lot, mstr followed, lost over $300k paper profits m2m, today much better


    upload_2024-3-25_22-55-7.png
     
    #118     Mar 25, 2024
    llIHeroic likes this.
  9. llIHeroic

    llIHeroic

    Yeah, I bought several batches of long puts, and then started buying shares to flatten my risk after I was sitting on decent gains. MSTR has shown surprising strength, the NAV premium is more persistent than I initially expected and it's correlation to BTC lends it a lot of strength.

    I don't think it will trade at a premium to its BTC holdings forever but after seeing it catch such a strong bid on any BTC rally, it's not clear to me how to structure a trade to capture the repricing. I think maybe I will go long BTC and just write MSTR calls against it, and plan on holding the trade for a while.

    Glad to see your position bounced back. I'll be honest john I will feel relieved when you are in BTC instead of MSTR but your conviction here is what got you all these unrealized gains in the first place so I hope that keeps up for you until your exit.
     
    #119     Mar 25, 2024
    johnarb likes this.
  10. johnarb

    johnarb

    Thank you very much, Heroic!!!!

    I believe there's a few reasons why mstr is trading at a premium
    • European countries unable to invest in the bitcoin spot etf's ,but able to with mstr
    • Bond funds able to ape into mstr debt offerings and becomes a reflexive loop when performance of the bonds outperform even hot tech stocks within a couple of weeks time
    • Bitcoin maxis buying mstr as a leverage position
    • Other equities-only investors seeing mstr as a leverage investment to btc versus bitcoin spot etf's, the former has no fees and can borrow and/or issue stocks to increase the btc holdings vs the latter that do not have the same capabilities
    • The possibility of mstr being added to the s&p 500 and the mstr price is trading in anticipation of the news
    The next 60 days is a good time period for mstr to hit $3k or higher

    After the halving in a month, bitcoin could rally to much higher price and if gbtc continues its big outflows, it could be completely out of bitcoins within 2 months or at least at a very small btc holding that it's an insignificant seller

    just some random thoughts but I have mental plans to help me get through the mstr volatility of the next 60 days
     
    #120     Mar 25, 2024
    NoahA likes this.