I wish for you to have a lot of fun, but I also wish for you to profit it seems going short vol on mstr may be risky at this time that bitcoin is breaking out to the upside and mstr volatility is shooting up Yesterday mstr stock price was down a little, but the 3 mstr options position I currently have went up in price See below for picture (1. mstr June 2025 call options wotm, 2. mstr dec call options ditm 3. mstr dec 2025 call options wotm) On May 2, I posted this on another thread
Will be selling naked calls on either BITX or MSTX in a few weeks.... I have seen this countless times when these run up day after day week after weeks and the swoosh they lose 30 to 50% of their value in a very quick amount of time. Will wait until bitcoin breaks to new highs and then start my positions.....
<prompt> Perform comparative analysis on the following <post>. Determine the Risk profile of holding the underlying vs this ETF, include tax consequences. </prompt> Answer from Perplexity: pplx.ai/share --- The YieldMax™ MSTR Option Income Strategy ETF (MSTY) employs a complex options strategy to generate income while providing capped exposure to MicroStrategy (MSTR). Below is a comparative analysis of the risk profiles and tax implications of holding MSTR directly versus MSTY, based on the provided options breakdown and supplemental research. Risk Profiles MSTR (Underlying Stock) Uncapped Volatility: MSTR is highly volatile due to its leverage to Bitcoin (historical volatility >100%95). Its price swings are magnified by Bitcoin’s volatility, regulatory risks, and market sentiment. Full Downside Exposure: Investors bear 100% of losses if MSTR declines. For example, MSTR fell 43% from its November 2024 peak9. Concentration Risk: Direct ownership exposes investors to single-stock risk without diversification1. MSTY (ETF) Capped Upside, Managed Downside: MSTY’s options strategy (synthetic longs, short puts, and long calls) limits gains if MSTR rises but reduces downside risk compared to direct ownership. Example: The ETF’s short puts (strikes $417.5–$455) and long calls ($475–$480) create a "collar" that caps losses if MSTR drops below $417.5 while allowing participation up to $480 [Post]9. Historical data shows MSTY’s volatility (24.61%) is lower than MSTR’s (26.59%)5. Income Cushion: Monthly distributions from option premiums partially offset price declines. For instance, MSTY’s 2024 distributions totaled ~$28/share1. Liquidity/Execution Risk: Relies on active options trading, which may underperform in extreme volatility or illiquid markets213. Tax Consequences Aspect MSTR (Direct Ownership) MSTY (ETF) Income Type No dividends; taxes only on capital gains when sold. Monthly distributions taxed as ordinary income (short-term gains)78. Capital Gains Long-term rates (if held >1 year); no tax until sale. Distributions may include return of capital, reducing cost basis and deferring taxes17. Tax Efficiency More efficient for buy-and-hold investors. Less efficient due to higher tax rates on ordinary income and potential return of capital. Key Trade-offs Growth vs. Income: MSTR offers uncapped upside if Bitcoin surges but no income. MSTY provides monthly yield (~130% distribution rate1) but caps gains (e.g., MSTY returned 128% in 12 months vs. MSTR’s 229%5). Risk Mitigation: MSTY’s options structure reduces volatility but introduces complexity (e.g., short puts risk assignment if MSTR collapses [Post]2). MSTR’s performance is binary: heavily tied to Bitcoin’s success or failure912. Tax Impact: MSTY’s distributions are taxed less favorably, while MSTR defers taxes until sale (ideal for long-term holders)78. Conclusion MSTR suits risk-tolerant investors seeking Bitcoin-correlated growth. MSTY is preferable for income-focused investors willing to sacrifice upside potential for reduced volatility and monthly cash flow. Both carry significant risks: MSTR from Bitcoin exposure, MSTY from options-strategy execution and tax inefficiency1135. <prompt> Perform quant analysis of stock ticker ''NASDAQ: NXTT'. Include: Float, Average 65 day volume, EPS, Percent Institutional Ownership, Percent Insider Ownership, TWAP, VWAP, and any BTC related metrics. </prompt> Answer from Perplexity: pplx.ai/share --- Next Technology Holding Inc. (NASDAQ: NXTT) exhibits notable quantitative metrics based on recent financial data. Below is a breakdown of key indicators: Float: 360.65 million shares145, though one source cites 434.51 million6, suggesting potential discrepancies in calculation methodologies. Average 65-Day Volume: 539,944 shares13, reflecting moderate liquidity. EPS (Earnings Per Share): $3.703, with a trailing P/E ratio of 0.643. Other sources report varying EPS figures ($6.616, $7.735), likely due to differences in time frames or accounting adjustments. Ownership: Institutional Ownership: 0.01%6 Insider Ownership: 0.06%6 TWAP/VWAP: Not explicitly provided in available data. BTC-Related Metrics: The company engages in bitcoin acquisition as part of its operations5, though specific quantitative details (e.g., holdings, revenue contribution) are undisclosed. The stock has shown extreme volatility, with a 661.29% 24-hour price surge35 and a 1-year decline of 40.85%5. Market capitalization stands at $1.03 billion35, supported by a revenue of $1.80 million and net income of $195.44 million over the past year6. I'm curious about the EPS, seems high.
I'm guessing it's GAAP bitcoin profits, read that TSLA's bitcoin profits saved them last earnings mstr is sitting on $20B bitcoin profits for next quarter's earnings with bitcoin at this price Back to nxtt, they are about to announce earnings, so may help them again Bitcoin treasury asset for public companies does have material impact on earnings and enterprise value, which is why it makes sense for zombie companies to adopt it We all know bitcoin will be $1M/btc within 5 years, imagine how these companies would look like in 5 years Below is from Gemini Advanced: Based on recent financial information, the bulk of Next Technology Holding Inc.'s (NXTT) reported earnings, particularly net income, has recently come from unrealized gains on their digital asset holdings, primarily Bitcoin.1 While Next Technology Holding Inc. operates in several business segments, including: YCloud: A micro-business cloud intelligent system providing technical services and solutions for social e-commerce.2 WTPay: Supporting various online payment methods.3 Y-Health: Focusing on the public health sector, including biological health and medical enterprises.4 YG: Providing tools and technical support for the digital new energy industry.5 AI-enabled software development services and solutions.6 Recent reports indicate that the net income has been significantly influenced by the increase in value of their Bitcoin reserves, overshadowing the revenue generated from their traditional business activities in certain periods.
Good interview from the people running the msty fund (link/video below Twitter) I was on a Twitter Spaces that was discussing some issues with msty, but I couldn't stay that long, however, one very clear concern from one of the dudes who has background on running funds (hedge fund manager former and current) He says he would ask the msty fund manager why they need to use synthetics instead of just buying the stock? Yes, he knows about putting the cash into treasury and earning yield, but that's going to be less than the friction costs of buying the actual shares vs the synthetics, 2 positions on a higher bid/ask market He says it's not an issue with mstr liquidity as it has huge volume, Mag 7 type of volume even at only $100B market cap He's accusing the msty folks of doing it for the purpose of paying the street more brokerage fees... not fraudulent, but in return they get all kinds of perks like private jets, and all kinds of VIP gifts just something to think about, again not fraud, or cause for msty to go bk, but... the cost inefficiencies are mitigated by treasury yields for most of it msty will be fine,, paying out great dividends, and even msty share price going up, as long as mstr is in a bull market but if capable, buy the mstr shares, sell covered calls, if called one month, sell naked puts, rinse repeat, and you know you'll have your best interest
John... did you see the posts on X about Josh selling all his MSTR? I believe it was 60,000 shares. I didn't really investigate too much about his reasoning, but of course lots of people were mad at him.