TBH, and I not hedging my statement, but I've never modeled MSTR and can't imagine that their CC will result in a line below 105 for Nov. Anyway, I'll stick with the model output, but my sense tells me 105-line at worst for Nov15 vols. The model is tuned for opcos. This thing is a BTC wallet.
Sorry, tbh most of the stuff went over my head, but I think that most likely there will be volatility crush on the near term options but I do not believe the long term options will have too much change in IV It's being speculated that mstr will announce another convertible debt offering after earnings release, but not necessarily during earnings call, could take a day or so There are some crazy (call) options players on mstr. I had no idea about them until recently when I joined the mstr Twitter group I heard on one of the videos that there's a call skew on mstr which may or may not be related the huge demand and as a result opening up of much higher strike prices for mstr options Might also be related to the bond holders hedging as their convert prices get close Anyway, not sure if you see any opportunities in the mstr options I'm holding call leaps, purely directional play This one guy claims to have turned $200k to $14M but still holding a ton of mstr call options, probably going for 9 figures This person is more sensible but has wall street experience Solomon Brothers bond analyst in the 90's As an aside, as mstr is on a nice run up, many of these calls are ending up in the money and getting exercised during expiration
Yep, they have missed more times than I count. Looking for 120 million in revenue.... They are so involved in buying up bitcoin that the concentration on the overall company profile of what they actually do has been totally abandoned....
The operating co doesn't matter. The dudes with the calls... they are going to take a hit on the vol-mark. If this trades lower the $14MM guy is going to lose 1.5 marked at 240 on shares. Just 4% lower.
Wow 121 million revenue estimates with an adjusted loss of 2 cents is what they expect. Zero growrh and the stock carries a 50 billion dollar market capitalization and stock is up over 200% year to date... thats what you call a humongous bubble. I'm sure though even if they show an inkling of a 3 cents profit with in line revenue the stock will pop 20% just because of how much this stock is already hyped. ....but in reality any upward surprise in earnings is completely baked into the stock already. This quarter, analysts are expecting MicroStrategy’s revenue to decline 6.2% year on year to $121.5 million, a reversal from the 3.3% increase it recorded in the same quarter last year. Adjusted loss is expected to come in at -$0.02 per share.
It's a BTC-derivative. If you're trading this on the top-line of the opco then you are doing this wrong. It's a liquid proxy for BTC. I won't argue for BTC valuations but focusing on operating metrics is silly.
Again what i find absolutely fascinating is you can have worthless earnings, but tack on some bitcoin to your bottom line and like magic it doesn't matter how bad those earnings are or what your future projected earnings and profits are going to be. If this is the ploy moving forward than every company struggling should buy 50,000 bitcoin, add it to their balance sheets and watch their stock blossom like a blooming flower!