MSTR as a defined-risk trade for asymmetric risk-reward

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by johnarb, Jun 16, 2024.

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  1. johnarb

    johnarb

    Be strong, have patience

    Bitcoin does this all the time... chop chop chop,

    When people say hodlers got lucky, they have no fucking idea. Not of the 2014-16, nor of the 2018-2019, nor of the 2022-2023, not even of the April/2024-Aug/2024...

    chop chop chop, up crash up crash

    HODL

    $100k is a measly 70% up move from here, come on now, that's a just a tiny move when bitcoin gets going during the last 4 months of the year

    Here's the 2020 halving, there were many doubters too if we were going to break $20k, look at where bitcoin was in August and look at the price in December

    Pekelo even started a thread from what I remember bitcoin was $15k chopping sideways to down, it was around the time of the election he mentioned Gold was the better hedge for the election "controversies"

    Bitcoin no care about politics or election, it's a global monetary asset, the best money in the history of the world

    Be strong, have patience, relax and hodl

    $100,000/bitcoin before eoy

    https://www.statmuse.com/money/ask/price-of-bitcoin-in-2020
     
    #61     Aug 19, 2024
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  2. johnarb

    johnarb

    Less than a week ago, popcat meme position was down about -30k usdt m2m (was down as much as 42k usdt m2m during the bitcoin crash to $49k)

    Today, popcat position is up +6k usdt m2m

    That's how fast bitcoin and crypto markets can turn, now bitcoin about $64k

    Still down on the mstr call options position m2m but plenty of time...

    NO FINANCIAL ADVICE here

    Trading methodology is on the OP post of this thread


    upload_2024-8-24_11-48-21.png
     
    Last edited: Aug 24, 2024
    #62     Aug 23, 2024
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  3. I'm over halfway done watching an interview with Eric Semler. Looks like he has lots of experience, even was a hedge fund manager, experienced with Bitcoin and sat on the board of Semler Scientific.

    I feel a lot more confident now that Semler Sci. may very well make its run-up like Microstrategy.

     
    #63     Aug 24, 2024
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  4. Overnight

    Overnight

    Have you lost your mind? March 2020 was a once-in-a-generation event.

    The only thing that can happen similar to that is an active nuclear conflict. And that is NOT going to happen.
     
    #64     Aug 24, 2024
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  5. johnarb

    johnarb

    **** Not financial advice ****

    I'm getting the same vibe as last time I was down over 70% m2m on mstr calls position...

    Position went from a value of $13k to $1M m2m within 2 months


    upload_2024-9-7_14-51-39.png
     
    #65     Sep 7, 2024
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  6. I'm more glad now I already took profits last month on MSTR & COIN positions. Now... I am still trying to stick to my plan of avoiding any further trades until tax-farming time. But... damn, it's been so hard today to hold back on this vol.
     
    #66     Sep 7, 2024
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  7. NoahA

    NoahA

    I hope you're right!! I'm holding a smallish BITX position, the 2x ETF, and what really sucks is the constant up and down. Most of my ETF allocations to Bitcoin are just the non-leveraged plays, so those will recover just fine, but this leveraged one is getting hammered on the down days and doesn't recover well enough on the up days. I do think it will still slightly outperform the non-leveraged plays at some point if we start to rally, but shit, its getting a bit painful. I can see why these instruments are not meant to be long term holds. The value that is erased on down days is very difficult to recover on up days. I have pretty much lost all profits accumulated during the nice rally after the ETF launch, and if we drop below 50k, that will suck. Once again, this is just a small position, thank god, but I certainly didn't consider the downsides of this ETF in my analysis. Its the up and down motion that is decimating the price.
     
    #67     Sep 7, 2024
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  8. johnarb

    johnarb

    I'm very confident that I am right and will make over $1M in profits on this mstr calls options trade

    The only way I am wrong is if bitcoin has seen the ath price for this epoch cycle and will not go above $80k before the end of next year 2025

    Leveraged bitcoin instruments are the correct way to play this when you know the time parameters
    • If I am wrong, I will lose $160k of mstr call options expiring worthless
    In line with the thread title, make 300-1000%+ roi or lose all invested capital. Asymmetric risk-reward

    **** Not Financial Advice ****
     
    #68     Sep 7, 2024
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  9. johnarb

    johnarb

    meme coin $popcat is worth over $1, my cost basis is $0.70

    I'm still down on my mstr call options, but things are looking much better with bitcoin above $64k on the way to $100k before eoy


    https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/popcat


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    upload_2024-9-25_11-51-20.png



    [image credit below to @caprioleo on Twitter]
    [​IMG]
     
    #69     Sep 24, 2024
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  10. johnarb

    johnarb

    #70     Sep 28, 2024
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