MSTR as a defined-risk trade for asymmetric risk-reward

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by johnarb, Jun 16, 2024.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. johnarb

    johnarb


    Last week, both positions, mstr leaps call options and the crypto popcat combined were profitable m2m as btc was trading near and above $70k/btc

    Today, down $70k m2m and popcat down about $35k, down 6 figure$ m2m combined positions

    But as the title says, these are defined risks, capital at risk is fixed, just buy & hold and let the probability distribution of highs and lows play out

    It's the way I trade. I'm very confident that when btc is trading at $100k/btc that both of these positions will be very profitable, before end of year

    Not financial advice
     
    #31     Aug 5, 2024
    NoahA and jbusse like this.
  2. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    What's fueling the sell-off in btc? Any idea. Seems like it should be going up. Margin calls on stocks forcing PM's to sell stuff maybe?
     
    #32     Aug 5, 2024
    johnarb likes this.
  3. johnarb

    johnarb

    Jump trading getting out, their wallets being tracked on the blockhain have been selling to stablecoins, they had massive positions on ETH and staked ETH

    There's a big Japanese institutional leveraged trader that is rumored to have blown up, had positions on crypto

    and the usual traders of the stock markets getting margin calls and having to liquidate their bitcoin and crypto holdings

    If March 2020 repeats, btc will be above $100k within a month or maybe sooner when the printing/bailout by the CB's are announced...
     
    #33     Aug 5, 2024
    vanzandt likes this.
  4. traider

    traider

    risk off
     
    #34     Aug 5, 2024
    johnarb likes this.
  5. johnarb

    johnarb

    Bitcoin is the safest asset in the whole world, but 99% of the world doesn't know it yet,

    as such, bitcoin is incorrectly being treated as a risk asset by the market
     
    #35     Aug 5, 2024
    jbusse likes this.
  6. NoahA

    NoahA

    I thought I read that the company that Dylan Leclair joined... metaplanet???.... in Japan was down 80%. But I don't know about any of this.
     
    #36     Aug 5, 2024
    johnarb likes this.
  7. johnarb

    johnarb

    It's down a lot from its ath, but today's Meta planet move is in line with the Nikkei

    Just like mstr, it's levered correlated to bitcoin price

    upload_2024-8-6_0-12-44.png
     
    #37     Aug 5, 2024
    NoahA likes this.
  8. I took advantage of the Black Monday panic to grab a bit of MicroStrategies' newest baby sister on the block this morning (SMLR)...

    I had been debating on getting some during the weekend, and was upset at myself for missing out on the rise when they first started accumulating Bitcoins months ago. A healthy reset made the decision easy now. Also, they bought more BTC for the balance sheet yesterday while the panic ensued.

    Screenshot 2024-08-06 at 5.50.08 PM.png
     
    #38     Aug 6, 2024
    jbusse and johnarb like this.
  9. Screenshot 2024-08-08 at 6.16.56 AM.png
     
    #39     Aug 8, 2024
    johnarb likes this.
  10. orbit23

    orbit23

    this is like the last trick to pull out of the bag to lure in more suckers
     
    #40     Aug 9, 2024
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.