MSTR as a defined-risk trade for asymmetric risk-reward

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by johnarb, Jun 16, 2024.

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  1. johnarb

    johnarb

    **** not financial advice, just entertainment ****

    The Nasdaq-100 will be a tailwind but because of the heavy ATM selling by mstr, the upside impact to the mstr share price will not be as significant

    It seems mstr was selling ATM this Friday... which means more mstr bitcoin buying this weekend, we'll find out on Monday or Tuesday if mstr announces another buy

    What's interesting is that so far, mstr has sold ATM shares worth $7-8 Billion out of $21 B that they said they will do over the next 3 years

    This happened in a matter of weeks. The whole $21B may be completed by eoy 2024 or most likely 1st quarter of 2025

    Then what? $21B is the largest ATM offering by any company. Will mstr announce a $50B ATM? that would be crazy...

    will mstr be able to acquire 1M bitcoin? or the more likely scenario is that the price of bitcoin shoots up real fast real soon... Once $100k/btc is broken, we could see some good follow through

    There is a race, and other buyers of bitcoin are watching mstr acquire bitcoin at a frantic pace... Goldman Sachs has increased their own bitcoin treasury as well, this is not for the investors, Blackrock may also follow

    And the bitcoin buyers in the global markets are watching as well

    More mstr debt convertibles will be announced as the bitcoin treasury increases, there is $21B over the next 3 years that mstr has filed

    mstr is fairly conservative, trying to stay within 25% of their bitcoin treasury value, an LTV of 25%

    not that it is a requirement, but it's a signal to the convertible debt buyers
     
    #341     Nov 29, 2024
    NoahA and jbusse like this.

  2. This is all speculation lol...only the chart can tell you what's going on and what is likely to continue going on or not. This has to follow through or according to when previous post halvening rallys ended, it will start its 80% retrace.

    So is the rally ended? When you compare it to previous post halvening rallies, we still have a ways to go...so I assume price will continue, and later be attributed to MSFT or other companies jumping on board.

    Remember the chart telegraphs what news is to come...the news does not telegraph what chart is to come. :)
     
    Last edited: Nov 30, 2024
    #342     Nov 30, 2024
  3. deaddog

    deaddog

    Explain SAVA
     
    #343     Nov 30, 2024
  4. SAVA was a mechanical trade! However by eyeballing it I didn't expect such a move as I was unaware about the trials...figured something was cooking, and was protected down to $13, but like I said it's a mechanical trade so researching it would defeat the purpose!

    If I had charted it I would have been expecting an ABC laterally, but when I get tight lateral movement I usually switch to wychoff or cyphers etc....BUT as mentioned this was a mechanical trade so you want to give me 400% yield I'll take it. :)

    upload_2024-11-30_9-31-44.png

    upload_2024-11-30_9-34-55.png
     
    #344     Nov 30, 2024
  5. deaddog

    deaddog

    Wasn't the news the reason the chart moved in this case?
     
    #345     Nov 30, 2024
  6. The chart was telegraphing a fail of the trial drug yes.
     
    #346     Nov 30, 2024
  7. deaddog

    deaddog

    Then you missed it or didn't beleive the chart.

    When you are chasing premium do you not take a quick glance at the chart?

    Had the news been positive wouldn't the chart have moved in the opposite direction?

    BTW kudos for posting your bad trades as well as your after the fact winners. I notice that you do manage to post the bad trades in close to real time.
     
    #347     Nov 30, 2024
  8. I just eyeballed it and saw where the potential could drop. Figured $13 break even kept me pretty safe. The whole point of this is to make mechanical trades and not really care about the outcome. Sure, I miss out on some premium earning income while I'm parking this one but plenty of others to pick up the slack.

    It's not even really a bad trade. I essentially borrowed 8k in cash that I never have to pay back, and used my position as collateral. If a bank offered you an LOC with 47% LV on your home that you never have to pay back, you'd take it even if you knew housing prices were going to drop. :)
     
    Last edited: Nov 30, 2024
    #348     Nov 30, 2024
  9. deaddog

    deaddog

    I never looked at it that way. To me I would be pissed that I had to pay 13 bucks for a 4 dollar stock that has little chance of moving up in the near term. I'm pretty sure my bank would look at it the same way.
    What does the chart say? If price is going to recover, when do you think it might do that.
     
    #349     Nov 30, 2024
  10. Already posted two charts LOL... Just look at the time frame between all the previous runups.
     
    #350     Nov 30, 2024
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