I've been getting a bit spooked lately, especially with Baron exiting his entire crypto position in the 'Journal' area of the forum, etc. And it doesn't help that Meldrum did yet another deep-dive explanation on why and how MSTR is destined to implode at some point. I am still holding onto my shares, but closed out derivative positions. I tried to do more diligence on the convertible bonds, but the little retail guys like you and me are not permitted to purchase any. So with that said, I'm out for now... I (may) put on more positions in 2025, but most likely will only do so with put-spreads.
I share your sentiment. I think its Baron's case though, he did say that there were tax advantages to doing it now. Its of course easy to see that everyone was hyping $100k, and this likely was a level with a ton of selling, so its no real surprise. What I truly didn't like is how MSTR somehow got to being the entire Bitcoin market. You can't just have one player scooping up all the bitcoin. Its shocking to me that there are even 20k, 30k or 40k coins available for them to buy in only a few days. So much for all those posts that highlight how only 450 are produced every day, but the buying is 10 times higher. There is a huge supply somewhere if we are to trust that all coins owned can be traced on-chain. Now don't get me wrong, there is absolutely nothing wrong with the bull thesis. I remain fully committed, and I don't think we have topped for this cycle, although I'm not even sure if the 4 year cycle theory will continue to play out. I think there are too many structural changes now to ever lead to an 80% drop. What I expected more was a break of 100k and then a deep pullback, but pulling back just shy of 100k is in my opinion also exactly the way this works in all other financial markets. Key levels can always either be broken with force and continue running, leaving too many on the sidelines. Or they can be broken and drop like a rock, leaving all the bag holders who were praying for a runaway train. Or, as we see, not even hit the key level and leave too many who were planning to sell at 100k with unfilled orders, and now dumping at lower and lower prices. Since the election, there was barely a lower low on the daily chart, so it was bound to happen. What I would like to see is for Saylor to shut up to be honest. I think he is almost creating a pump and dump setup. I remember reading somewhere how a person would have gotten into bitcoin much sooner if it wasn't for Max Kaiser running around like a mad man. His antics apparently led this person to not take bitcoin seriously. I'm not familiar with what was going on at this time, but I understand the sentiment. The way Saylor talks now is as if his life depends on Bitcoin going up, and that Bitcoin is the holy grail. I think this is a bit too forceful. But because nothing in the world is going to be fixed with fiat, there is no bear case for bitcoin. With Trump potentially making major cuts, I think this all removes liquidity, causes a recession, and prevents the liquidity injection we were all hoping for. If government gets resonsible (highly doubt it though), then the case for bitcoin needs a bit more time to develop. But I'm fairly certain Trump will be forced to spend, and the dollar will continue to drop. If it goes too high, that crashes the entire world, so a temporary pause for bitcoin, but if you crash the world and crash the bonds and crash real estate, then I think Bitcoin eventually shines as the best store of wealth anyway.
There's a lot to address on your post, but let me pick this one Saylor cannot shut up, he needs to speak up publicly about mstr to his investors, equity and debt, to explain the details As a public company, all the things mstr has done the past 3 weeks have to be reported publicly, per SEC rules mstr has purchased 130k+ bitcoin in the past 3 weeks mstr has sold at the money shares, just dumped them on the market, no premium, over $7B worth of stocks mstr has sold $3B worth of convertible debt 0 coupon, 55% premium convert price bitcoin has been climbing, week after week after week because of mstr purchase If it was not for mstr, where would the price of bitcoin be right now? my estimate is stuck in the 80k's Last Monday, bitcoin was stuck at $90k, on the weekend prior, bitcoin was dipping in the high 80k's, as low as 85k, mstr started buying and bitcoin hit $99k with the momentum, it's in the S8(?) filing, mstr had been buying all week It's not all mstr that's buying bitcoin, Blackrock ibit has been doing record inflows (buying) of bitcoin, as well as the other bitcoin spot etf's, billions of $ worth the past few weeks, Blackrock did a 1 day record of $1.1B last week or the week before. One day SMLR and Mara, and Metaplanet, and some other small companies have been buying as well Bitcoin is $94k at the time I'm writing this. I think this is excellent. Sure I want $100k, but bitcoin is not a get rich quick, it's a long term life savings If I had told you 2 years ago that bitcoin would be $94k and you would not be happy about it, you would not believe me If I had told you 6 months ago that bitcoin would be $94k and you would not be happy about it, you would not believe me If I had told you 1 month ago that bitcoin would be $94k and you would not be happy about it, you would not believe me Bitcoin will go to $100k before eoy is the target, still over 1 month to get it done, we got Thanksgiving coming up and the whole month of Bullcember, relax and enjoy Re: Max Keiser preventing others to getting in? Those are weak minded people, easily influenced by social media manipulation, they would not be able to hodl with all of the shit the CNBC, Bloomberg, their friends, their families, the ET posts mockeries and fud that was directed at us for over 10 years and still continue to happen Max Keiser antics should not have prevented anyone from getting into bitcoin The fact that bitcoin was used for illegal drugs transactions, underground murder for hire, kidnapping, extortion, malware, ransomware, hacking of corporations and individuals and other stuff, are probably more of a reason to stay away from bitcoin during that time
**** no financial advice, for entertainment post only **** Last Friday, m2m the position was up over $25k profits, I added more this Monday morning, barely positive m2m at the time, and now position is negative m2m Volatility seems to have gone down a lot, it was very high, mean-reversion is expected and it is here, and volatility is still very high and can still go down from here Will it go parabolic again? I do think so, when bitcoin goes above $100k, if Nasdaq-100 inclusion happens and the resulting front-running by market players The long term calls position is also down significantly, but still good profits m2m, no plans to do anything until 2nd half of next year, anyway, so just monitoring it Now, I know why I do not play the short term, too much excitement, but too much risk This Twitter post from British Hodl is excellent especially for the ones playing mstr with short time frame in mind
Long term hodlers are selling, there's speculation on the reasons why, I'll mention a few that I think are the more likely reasons Cashing out for lifestyle change, i.e. house purchase, luxuries, Cashing out, pay long term tax obligations, and putting most or a big portion of what's left back into the spot etf's (in this way, it becomes a part of traditional financial system portfolio for estate planning vs risk of lost coins after death, also able to margin, sell covered calls, or take advantage of tradfi services such as credit cards) Same as above, but instead of spot etf's, mstr, no expense ratio, ability to grow per share btc allocation aka btc yield, for example, every mstr share has 60% more btc than the beginning of the year Cashing out a small portion if they have a lot of coins, i.e. someone selling 1k bitcoin but have 2k or more
This is really good info, thanks. The best part about this is that there is a finite supply of this type of seller. Plus, lets put what is happening into context. If we look at pullbacks, there is a 9% one just before the election. Then after the huge rally started, there is a 5% and 7% pullback, and now, we are only at just under 8%. This is no way any cause for alarm. I've looked at the other cycles, and 30% pullbacks were very common during the steep rallies.
**** no financial advice, just entertainment post **** Crucial day for mstr today Friday 11/29/2024, and a shortened trading day at that Whatever the perceived Nasdaq-100 slot inclusion would be front-ran in varying and increasing degrees for the next 2 weeks ... until 12/13/2024 Nasdaq-100 announcement of inclusion or no inclusion
Bitcoin doesn't need MSTR as much as MSTR needs bitcoin. External factors have no direct affect on price movement. How many times do I have to explain this to you guys??? Price moves in cycles. We were either going to extend, or do a double correction. @johnarb all we want to see is the affect this downturn has had on your position...theta/gamma dump whatever..
Still sitting here flat for the week and refusing to trade more MSTR derivatives for the year. Sitting on my shares though and am happy to lend them out to short-sellers for a fee. I think starting in January, I (may) start trading a lot more ES and NQ than MSTR. I never pay much attention to those indexes and I really should get more into the habit.