MSTR as a defined-risk trade for asymmetric risk-reward

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by johnarb, Jun 16, 2024.

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  1. poopy

    poopy

    So I compared the MSTR to some of the ETFs. Jan17 vol is the lowest of all and no tracking issues and it's leveraged at 100-line (convert issuance). It's definitely the best ticker for a bull play.
     
    #281     Oct 31, 2024
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  2. poopy

    poopy

    100% annualized vol (vol-line).
     
    #282     Oct 31, 2024
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  3. johnarb

    johnarb

    This is on the ATM share offering... $21B worth

    There's also a debt offering $21B.... all to buy bitcoin

     
    #283     Oct 31, 2024
  4. poopy

    poopy

    It's uncorrelated to index so yeah, it should be up a lot more than 0.25. DIS is up 1.5 FFS.
     
    #284     Oct 31, 2024
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  5. poopy

    poopy

    258 high over the next 10 calendar days. 232 low.
     
    #285     Oct 31, 2024
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  6. Allllrighty then! I am back on a position for MSTR, lol.

    Screenshot 2024-11-01 at 5.41.07 PM.png

    Only a small position, shorted a put on the December contract, ATM. Figured I'd take advantage of the little pull-back today.

    And then, I was listening to Meldrum's cast from last night, and he went on a little rant again on MSTR for being a 'Value Destroying Business' a few minutes that made me think.... WTF am I doing in MSTR again?! lol

    Time advanced to section, rant stops at 52-mins:


     
    #286     Nov 1, 2024
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  7. johnarb

    johnarb


    **** Please take this for entertainment purposes only and not financial advice ****

    Interesting take on what mstr market cap and share price extrapolating on current numbers,

    From the first page of this thread, mstr has already done a 10 to 1 split,

    As I mentioned on another thread, mstr could be the biggest market cap publicly listed company when bitcoin hits $1M within the next 5 years

    I said my back of the envelope calculation was conservative

    This dude's calculation of $1M/btc mstr share price is without Microstrategy adding more bitcoin to their treasury and staying at 250k btc

    nevertheless, our conclusions are similar

     
    #287     Nov 2, 2024
  8. Heads up...

    Kontrol Technologies (KNR) is another company that's trying to emulate closer in line with MSTR. I haven't completed my due-diligence yet, and I'm a little suspicious since it's been a penny stock to begin with. But they've turned around their earnings and have gone quite positive lately while doing buy-backs.

    More research to be done this weekend...
     
    #288     Nov 2, 2024
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  9. NoahA

    NoahA

    I hate to sound negative, but I did just want to highlight this one post I saw. Not sure how accurate it is, but apparently, the software side isn't doing so good. This revenue stream is of course necessary for those interest payments. So I just want to throw this out there as some healthy counterbalance to the bullish narrative.

     
    #289     Nov 2, 2024
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  10. jbusse

    jbusse

    I don't think they need revenue from the software side to pay interest. They currently sell their stock at 2.6X their BTC holdings. So, if they were to issue $260 of new equity, they could buy $100 of new BTC and use the remaining $160 on interest (or other operating expenses), while maintaining the same ratio of BTC to MSTR share. In this example, if they were to buy more than $100 of BTC, that would positively impact the BTC yield that they recently started reporting (i.e., it would increase the ratio of BTC per MSTR share). Conversely if they buy less than $100. The key point is that their 2.6X BTC stock NAV provides an incredible amount of flexibility.
     
    #290     Nov 2, 2024
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