MSTR as a defined-risk trade for asymmetric risk-reward

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by johnarb, Jun 16, 2024.

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  1. johnarb

    johnarb

    **** Not Financial Advice, post is for entertainment only ****

    If people thought I was a degen, I have recently learned and confirmed that I am not and that I am very conservative risk-averse mstr call options speculator just as I had suspected

    There are out of control mstr call buyers I'm learning about after joining the mstr group on Twitter

    Be that as it may, I truly believe that all of their options will become deep in the money before expiration, Godspeed





     
    #261     Oct 29, 2024
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  2. I read the first few pages of this while on holiday in September, and could follow John's argument here and in other threads, so opened a few OtM spreads at small size to participate in any upside whilst researching further.

    The first few closing orders have filled in profit so I now have unrealised profit on the remainder and no downside / zero risk overall - assymetric risk-reward ironically!

    Many thanks for persevering @johnarb :thumbsup:
     
    #262     Oct 29, 2024
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  3. johnarb

    johnarb

    **** no financial advice ****

    I am very happy for you! Your post means a lot, you're welcome and thank you very much, also!

    I posted many times while my position was very much in the negative m2m, not because I enjoyed it, tbh I felt frustrated the market was not going my way, both btc and mstr, and of course, negative emotions losing $ on my call position m2m

    But I forced myself to screen capture and post and give my thoughts I never lost and always had very high confidence in the trade....

    just in case there are others who went into the mstr trade and I would not want them to think I've abandoned the trade

    mstr trades with btc but with a higher volatility... as we enter the most bullish period for btc, it will be interesting how mstr will leverage this

    bond investors are ready to oversubscribe the next mstr convertible debt offerings, and the higher the price of mstr goes, the better, reflexive loop on the upside.... on steroids

    mstr is only at the beginning, when bitcoin hits $80k soon, mstr will most likely be above $400, imho

    prepare accordingly :D
     
    Last edited: Oct 29, 2024
    #263     Oct 29, 2024

  4. I am cheering for you! Couldn’t happen to a nicer person!
     
    #264     Oct 29, 2024
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  5. johnarb

    johnarb

    Thank you very much, Mr Ted! I wish you continued successful trading, as well!
     
    #265     Oct 29, 2024
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  6. NoahA

    NoahA

    Its interesting to see how well MSRT is holding up during this mini BTC plunge. After the huge $41B announcement, there was an immediate plunge, but it recovered, and there is no follow-through today. Very interesting.
     
    #266     Oct 31, 2024
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  7. poopy

    poopy

    Alright, ostensibly the capital raise will be collateralized by their BTC? Why take the risk in vols well above spot and ETFs if the thing collapses and has to dump BTC? It's a margin loan.
     
    #267     Oct 31, 2024
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  8. NoahA

    NoahA

    I of course don't understand this nearly as well as you do, but I also worry about this.

    From what I do know though, he just has to make sure that he has the cashflow in order to meet the expenses or something like this. And his business is nicely cash flow positive. So perhaps the stock price can dump, but there isn't the worry of being liquidated and having to sell bitcoin because the bitcoin is bought via debt that just needs to be financed by the cash flow.

    It looks like his goal is a build a huge treasury of bitcoin and then be a bitcoin bank to generate yield.
     
    #268     Oct 31, 2024
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  9. johnarb

    johnarb

    Actually all the mstr debt are unsecured loans with less than 1% interest rate, they are not obligated to sell the btc to pay them off
     
    #269     Oct 31, 2024
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  10. poopy

    poopy


    Current. You know the terms of the upcoming capital raise? Unsecured loans at 1%?
     
    #270     Oct 31, 2024
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