MSTR as a defined-risk trade for asymmetric risk-reward

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by johnarb, Jun 16, 2024.

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  1. johnarb

    johnarb

    It happened already, bitcoin dropped over 75% in 2022, you can look at what mstr did to handle the debt, look at mstr press releases in 2022
     
    #251     Oct 22, 2024
  2. johnarb

    johnarb

    **** NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, THIS POST IS FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY ****

    As bitcoin is languishing, unable to make a move past $70k pulling back every time it gets close...

    the memecoins are doing well, one has to wonder if they will do even better when bitcoin goes past $75k

    $popcat and $goat made a new ath today

    The leading L1 blockchain of choice for memecoins is Solana which is also helping the price of $sol

    Can't wait for the election uncertainties to be behind us...


    upload_2024-10-24_16-8-33.png
     
    #252     Oct 24, 2024
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  3. johnarb

    johnarb

    **** Not Financial Advice, post is for entertainment only ****

    There are a lot of speculators in the mstr options, and way out of the money strikes keep opening for next year

    I've said many times I believe mstr will hit $700 by July 1, 2025,

    but to be honest, I would not be surprised if mstr is above $1400 by Nov 30, 2025

     
    #253     Oct 27, 2024
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  4. NoahA

    NoahA

    I'm waiting for a dip! There is a guy on Twitter I follow... something like CredibleCrypto, and he took a MSTR short, hoping for I think 120 it was. I have no idea how it will play out, but I would love to see this dip because I do think I will hope to buy some of these calls after selling that ETH ETF that is just dead money at this point. The way I feel during a major crash is exactly when I want to buy these calls. :D
     
    #254     Oct 27, 2024
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  5. johnarb

    johnarb

    mstr earnings on Wednesday 10/30, but it's really bitcoin's price that has more effect on mstr share price

    You would be hoping for waxy to be correct :D

    and bitcoin to pull back in the low 50's, mstr pulled back to $118 on Sept 9 when bitcoin was in that price range
     
    #255     Oct 27, 2024
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  6. NoahA

    NoahA

    Yup, I don't mind a pullback to be honest. I'm out of all the BITX I had, so like you, no more leverage. The visit to the low 50's would actually be nice. I'm totally ready to take the MSTR lottery ticket approach!!! Its only about $2k that I would be buying, and if those calls expired worthless, oh well, it won't be the end.
     
    #256     Oct 27, 2024
    johnarb likes this.
  7. Still flat here on MSTR. Unfortunately, all the talk on MSTR crashing hasn't happened. I keep hoping!

    Funny thing, all the bears have gone very quiet over the last few months now. It's like, impossible to find them. Funny why that is.

    I've been out hunting with my rifle and you can't even hear a single leaf rustle, never mind some roar...

    But when they're back in herds hopefully in another season, I'll be ready with another cash position.
     
    #257     Oct 27, 2024
  8. NoahA

    NoahA

    So I just sold the ETH ETF and getting back $3k... having lost $2k (Cdn). There was just no point in hanging on anymore. If ETH ever got back above $4,000, in order for me to exit at break even, this means that Bitcoin will absolutely have to be screaming higher, and this means that MSTR would also have to be significantly higher as a percentage than the roughly 40% that ETH would need to climb.

    I do feel like I should wait for some sort of MSTR pullback, but of course, I might be left without any exposure. Hmmmm....

    Its kind of crazy to think that both MSTR and SOL have now already had a 10x since the lows in Nov 2022.
     
    #258     Oct 28, 2024
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  9. $300 John! MSTR.
     
    #259     Oct 28, 2024
    johnarb likes this.
  10. johnarb

    johnarb

    Yes, Mr Ted before end of the month, we still have 3 trading days left!

    It all depends on the bitcoin price staying up and going up even
     
    #260     Oct 29, 2024
    TrailerParkTed likes this.
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