Yea, that spot etf's options announcement is great! Lots of bitcoin people with tradfi background are talking about it because supposedly it can literally attract massive wall street liquidity, because options is seen as a "yield producing asset, by simply selling covered calls on their spot etf's holdings" Also for the really big investors and institutional-types, it allows them to put all kinds of synthetics and hedges and these spot etf's are crazy liquid, which makes them really attractive for those This is a competition to mstr options market but not to the (m)NAV as the spot etf's will always be 1 to 1 NAV that's their job to track the underlying spot btc [theoretically could affect mstr options volatility premium, but still have to wait and see if actual mstr price volatility dampens] mstr is forward-looking able to leverage the company software cloud business intelligence in order to earn, borrow and sell equity to buy bitcoin, and more bitcoin and still more bitcoin In a bull market when bitcoin goes on a massive run up ngu to $100k, 200k, 300k, what price multiple plus bitcoin treasury value effect would happen to mstr? $700/sh? $1k/sh? $2k/sh? $3k/sh? That's why some are very very bullish on mstr for next year, going into post-FASB rule change adoption per btc which could result in a massive EPS jump and a crash of the PE ratio
You know, in case I haven't posted this, it's about time. In one of Mark Meldrum's videos he did do an analysis of MSTR. Naturally, he is a bear on Bitcoin and MSTR in particular. And... he also has a distaste for Tesla. That said, he is CFA mentor and literally the only 'Guru' which I have paid a subscription for. And this coming from someone who literally swore I'd never pay for a Guru subscription (since almost all are charlatans). I have set the timeline to start right at where he goes over MSTR. Note: As an interesting sidenote, you could go back to 6:14-11:28 on the timeline, which he covers Roaring Kitty's return. This is how I tracked down the video to the June 9, 2024. He definitely was not favorable on Kitty and mentioned a few things, such as a suspicious paper-trading account, etc. I haven't really paid much attention ever since, as it looks like Keith Gill disappeared since.
My take on Meldrum's analysis is that he misses the key advantages ("Unique to MSTR") that most of the FinTwit types have been emphasizing. 1. He doesn't factor in that when MSTR issues equity, it issues it at a huge premium relative to the NAV of MSTR's bitcoin holdings, which MSTR then turns around and buys additional bitcoin at the current bitcoin market price. For instance, if MSTR is trading at double the value of the bitcoin holdings, it's as though they are able to buy bitcoin at half price. Bitcoin ETFs don't have this advantage because they issue new shares based on bitcoin's current NAV. 2. He seems to ignore that when the convertible debt converts to equity, it does so at something like a 40% premium to MSTR's market price on the day the convertible debt was issued (based on the specifics of the particular convertible debt offering). If bitcoin goes up in value and the debt converts, MSTR would have essentially issued equity at a 40% premium to an MSTR share price that already was trading at a hefty premium relative to its bitcoin holdings. As such, they're either issuing debt at a very low interest rate or selling equity at an even larger premium compared to #1 above.
**** not financial advise, for entertainment purposes only **** mstr is publicly traded company and is part of the tradfi centralized system bitcoin secured by private keys that you control is different It is ok to own both, but the former is not a replacement for the latter... Listen to the Blackrock ceo recent interviews for the opposing view of the importance of owning the asset bitcoin Full video interview
Recently started reading about Saylor and the magical MSTR and what will happen when it is include din S&P 500 etc one ( fundamental and perhaps stupid) question - 1) What will happen to MSTR price if Bitcoin drops in a big way and many holders can't stomach the vol. 2) what happens if the Bitcoin unlike real estate disappears due to fraud , yes one can argue tomorrow there could be fraud at Boeing or GE but both have huge IP and factories which has core value , MSTR is made up of Bitcoins! mostly the Software business profits are not much
mstr hitting market cap 75 biggest on qqq is the short term target by Nov something, as it's automatic Unlike S&P500 inclusion that has more restrictions and approvals Massive amount of money will flow into buying mstr if included in the qqq which will be used by mstr to buy more bitcoin in the future as they sell shares and convertible debt flywheel reflexive loop
I have no view on it , I am just trying to understand the hype or reality what will happen if Bitcoin drops how is MSTR going to pay the binds back etc