Excellent segment, Noah! I'm going to watch the whole video He forgot to mention the most painful part of the blowups were the moms and pops and joe sixpacks retail, Genesis (double-fucks, biggest prime-broker supplier of other people's bitcoin/crypto and incestual fuck with GBTC), Voyager, Celsius, and BlockFi It's bad enough FTX sold 80,000 bitcoin and other crypto assets that belong to their customers accounts, but the ones above were just looking for yield on their bitcoin/cryptos and with all of that margin selling liquidation, the lowest that bear market could get bitcoin to was $14.5k Props again to Winklevoss twins for saving their Gemini Earn customers from any pain, they were absolutely going to expose criminal activities for Barry if their customers were not made whole in bitcoin/crypto terms none of the fiat-equivalent at the bottom price like with FTX/BlockFi/Voyager/Celsius bullshit payout Anyway, sorry for the tangent, but it highlights the point checkmate made that we don't have any of that BS stuff on this bull market cycle, what we have are bitcoin spot etf's from the likes of Blackrock and Fidelity and corporations like Microstrategy that did not sell any bitcoin even at the depths of the previous bear market, in fact kept buying even during the bear market So yes, absolutely I'm also thinking we don't get the 80% drawdown from the high... but.... let's say we do! Let's review previous bear market lows... because I think many on ET might be looking forward to the next bear market and thinking they will buy, people like Laissez Faire who was planning to buy 2022 bear market bitcoin prices and got scared off when it came bear market low that started in 2014 was 3-digit $150 bear market low that started in 2018 was 4-digit $3200 bear market low that started in 2022 was 5-digit $14,500 That last bear market was the last chance for the average person to own 1 whole bitcoin by charging it on credit card If bitcoin peaks at >$350k next year, the bear market low will most likely be 6-digit!!!! even if we get a 70% correction What I'm trying to say is that for most people, not talking about the ultra high networth, owning 1 bitcoin is going to be very difficult now and going forward A 7-figure networther who has most of net worth tied up in assets like real estate and stock market portfolio is not going to sell those assets and pay taxes to buy 1 whole bitcoin or more at $67k and definitely not at $100k unless they really really believe in the bitcoin ethos A lot of bitcoiners are going to sell a small portion of their bitcoin stack but if we don't get the 70% drawdown, that will be great, but even if we do, I can't speak for all bitcoiners but a 6-digit USD bitcoin bottom price is not something that would cause anguish
You guys are just doing this math now? No wonder you are driving honda civics. It wasn't an excellent segment lol...it was just regurgitating common information and slapping a video camera and microphones on! There really is no bear market for bitcoin...just consolidation.
Every time we get close to 70K another large entity sells off... After waiting patiently through the mass selling from the US government this year... the German government.... the Mt. Gox dumping... etc.. etc... guess what? We're finally almost near 70K, and suddenly Tesla lights up and moves BTC in preparation for its sell target. We're already in the last quarter of the year. It seems there are so many people who claim we're magically going to hit 100K+ this year (just like they say EVERY YEAR), but not one of these gurus has predicted any of the sellers who keep showing up and depressing price back down. Keep in mind, the higher the value, the more people show up because you hit their sell-targets. I have 60 of my original 100 CALLs on BTC remaining... I may sell 10 or 20 of them tomorrow if BTC doesn't drop again due to Tesla's suspicious wallet activity. I will probably load up on a few more real estate ETFs.
Sorry went on a tangent I'm also of this viewpoint, no more big crash for the next bear market, perhaps no more bear market, just choppy sideways periods like what we've experienced the past 6 months Because Global liquidity will no longer contract to prevent a financial crisis, Lyn Alden-James Lavish debt-spiral thesis 130% debt to gdp, $2T deficit and growing = high inflationary environment going forward = perpetual money printing
You're starting to sound like Banana Ben Bernanke just before the epic meltdown of institutions around the world kicked off...
**** No Financial Advice, just entertainment purposes only **** We're here, October options expiration, I think mstr could get interesting, big move up or down My low IQ biased opinion is that mstr shoots up, because if I was Saylor and his team, would not sell shares today, let the price go up short squeeze and then sell shares next week again Monday to sell at higher prices I have mstr LEAPS calls so I do want the mstr price to go up, but I still have lots of time On a related subject, bitcoin could also have a big move today related to OpEx
I honestly think this is all good. Of course I want price to keep climbing, but if there are large holders out there, I think getting them out of the game now will mean a very bright future. The last thing we want is big whales with 10,000 coins dumping when price is $100k or $200k. Retail will not the ability to affect price this much I don't imagine. So all the big selling now is I think good for long term. All the ETF demand has I think increased the distribution of bitcoin quite widely. Sure, there are funds that are buying these ETFs, but even those funds are comprised of individual investors. The whole point for bitcoin is for the majority to have exposure. Even if they don't have it in cold storage, having it in an ETF means that you would need thousands of people all wanting to sell in order to match what one whale could do. When bitcoin is so widely distributed that everyone on your block has some, the future will be very bright.
Saylor and team did not sell mstr shares today(?), will they repeat the pattern and start selling again on Monday til Wednesday(?) This is painful in the short term for mstr "investors" but bullish in the long term as mstr buys bitcoin from the sale proceeds
John, how do you think things will change once these options on the ETFs go live since it was just announced today? If MSTR has the NAV multiple, that was a good reason to go into MSTR, but now there is going to be the options multiple on the pure bitcoin play. Obviously MSTR is shorting the dollar via their strategy and is accumulating bitcoin with little cost, but there is the risk that the NAV multiple can close. If bitcoin goes up, then of course ETF options will do well, but if bitcoin goes up, there is no guarantee that MSTR will go up at the same rate, or even continue at the same multiple. So I'm just curious if you've thought about this as well.