MSTR as a defined-risk trade for asymmetric risk-reward

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by johnarb, Jun 16, 2024.

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  1. And puuuushhhh to ---->v (69-70k) so I can dump my calls :)
     
    #221     Oct 15, 2024
  2. "A spinning top at the top of an uptrend could signify that bulls are losing control, and the trend may reverse."

    upload_2024-10-15_12-34-8.png

    upload_2024-10-15_12-32-43.png
     
    #222     Oct 15, 2024
  3. $3 to $39, I exited but it’s fun to watch!


    $50? High $46
     
    #223     Oct 15, 2024
    johnarb likes this.
  4. johnarb

    johnarb

    Very nice, congrats Mr T!!!!

    I looked on yahoo finance and company is saying unaware of any material changes
     
    #224     Oct 15, 2024
    TrailerParkTed likes this.
  5. Thank you, it hit $59.92 in after hours. Next we need MSTR above its ATH!
     
    #225     Oct 16, 2024
    johnarb likes this.
  6. johnarb

    johnarb

    The company is selling mstr shares (rumored), this is normal, they use the proceeds to buy more bitcoin

    The good thing is that my mstr call options have a lot of time, more than 9 months
     
    #226     Oct 16, 2024
    NoahA and TrailerParkTed like this.
  7. I had another go from $3($1.5 if I was 21 again!) to almost $20 today, yesterday something looked weird on its volume.
     
    #227     Oct 16, 2024
    johnarb likes this.
  8. johnarb

    johnarb

    For 2 days mstr had the most volume recorded, which is why it's suspected mstr is selling shares into strength as it can be absorbed by the market

    I think it's called ATM (at-the-money) offering of selling shares
     
    #228     Oct 16, 2024
    NoahA likes this.
  9. NoahA

    NoahA

    So I watched yet another podcast, and this time its with Checkmate, the on-chain metrics guy. He was asked about the 80% drawdown, and he too thinks that perhaps it doesn't happen again this time. So this is yet another viewpoint that matches what I am thinking as well. I bring this up John because although the rule for bitcoin has been green, green, green, red, it is possible that the future cycles of bitcoin don't play out like the past.

    I've got the video cued up to this question, but the whole episode is good because Checkmate makes a very good case for why seeing a top is quite evident in the data. So this is really the guy to follow I think for trying to assess where the market is going.

     
    #229     Oct 17, 2024
    johnarb likes this.
  10. Why do you guys keep listening to these talking heads??? We already had the 80% drawdown...when it went from 70k to 14k.... If this next run-up goes to 200k of course we're going to have an 80% drawdown... Or whatever exponential percent they're decreasing by. He's talking about interest rates and external factors that have nothing to do with price movement of Bitcoin. What was the reason for the 80% drawdown the other 20 times it's happened or whatever. Listen to the guys with the Lamborghinis.
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2024
    #230     Oct 17, 2024
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