MSTR as a defined-risk trade for asymmetric risk-reward

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by johnarb, Jun 16, 2024.

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  1. johnarb

    johnarb

    You're fixated on bitcoin going down, fuggedaboutit, bitcoin is going up from here, bull market going to heat up

    A good question to ask would be in a mania fomo phase how high these things can go

    GME mNAV went to >40 heard on youtube video
     
    #201     Oct 15, 2024
  2. I'm fixated on what the chart is telling me...forget EW...this monthly chart doesn't concern you? I'm not saying we don't hit 100k, but it could be later than expected. It's been a bull market since Oct1 2023...this is consolidation.

    upload_2024-10-15_4-7-18.png


    This correlates with EW btw which is showing a double correction possibility...
     
    #202     Oct 15, 2024
  3. Or what about this?

    https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

    (I've roughly plotted in some greed % levels)

    upload_2024-10-15_4-35-23.png


    Or this. Every time we hit 90% + supply in profit there has been a correction. We have been in a correction since March...the only question is, is the correction finished? On the chart the correction usually ended around 50%/40% ratio.
    https://chainexposed.com/SupplyInProfit.html

    upload_2024-10-15_4-40-17.png


    upload_2024-10-15_4-41-41.png


    upload_2024-10-15_4-40-48.png


    I mean all of this stuff is baked into EW, but I still look for further confirmations.
     
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2024
    #203     Oct 15, 2024
  4. johnarb

    johnarb

    Sorry I don't do TA, so cannot understand your chart stuff

    bitcoin is above $65k, that's pretty good, and based on the schedule from previous halving years, we're literally days away from a huge run-up

    Not financial advice, of course
     
    #204     Oct 15, 2024
  5. Why does 65k matter? It's been here before many times during the correction.
    upload_2024-10-15_4-53-25.png

    Look at what I posted from the greed meter, and chain exposed then.

     
    #205     Oct 15, 2024
  6. johnarb

    johnarb

    I saw we're on the greed level, everyone in crypto are all anticipating the biggest bull market

    But if you look at the google search trend, it's at 4 year low

    Does not matter, we will find out if you are right about a correction very soon, within 2 weeks
     
    #206     Oct 15, 2024
  7. Yeah it will all depend what happens at (C) which roughly is about 100% of wave A...so 68-70k if extended...if we don't blast off then be prepared for a double correction down to low 50's. I can't control or manipulate the chart data...the rsi is showing weakness and divergence from price...the MAC D is rounding etc..in the past these were all pre-cursors to a draw down...we are also on the handle of a huge C&H so its ready to pop. :)

    Me and you can both agree it has never been a question of if, just when. :)

    upload_2024-10-15_4-58-12.png
     
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2024
    #207     Oct 15, 2024
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  8. johnarb

    johnarb

    We're entering the most bullish Q4 period of bitcoin's existence

    bitcoin hitting low 50's is about the same chance as you hitting $500M+ on the powerball

    $100k/btc before eoy 2024

    upload_2024-10-15_21-57-30.png
     
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2024
    #208     Oct 15, 2024
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  9. Well we are going to see what happens at 70k...already heading there. ;)

    (Currently on the iii subwave of iv--->v...expecting a slight pullback to iv)
     
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2024
    #209     Oct 15, 2024
  10. Dude, price has hit the 50's 4 times during this correction...so it makes sense that the final correction will do the same...Are you certain the looming call expiry isn't affecting your judgement? If you are in a MUST DO THIS scenario that is risky especially without the technicals...I've been there but my technicals were solid. :)

    Do you have a rollout contingency plan in place? I had to roll out. What is your strike/expiry?
     
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2024
    #210     Oct 15, 2024
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