He risked 1.5M to make 1.5M...that's 1:1...I keep telling you guys these calls are totally over priced...gonna be a huge rug pull.
The mstr calls are overpriced right now. They were at a discount when mstr was trading below 1x of their NAV Currently, mstr is trading at over 3x mNAV imo, mstr is trading at a premium because it's pricing in the coming bitcoin bull market for the next 12 months As my plan is laid out on the first page of this thread, sell the calls during the bull mania parabolic phase second half of next year and buy the mstr shares for long term investment That dude has June 2026 mstr calls, he does not seem to have a plan except maybe sell after 1 year of holding the calls to minimize taxes, that may just work out for him if he follows it Exciting times ahead. If we get this right, we could relax for many years, go fishing, go to the beach, no stress. Plan accordingly bitcoin peak for this cycle is at least $250k/btc imho **** No financial advice, for entertainment purposes only ****
Just watched this podcast and Dr. Ross has a target of $475k, but what I wanted to share is the prediction of Joe Carlasare (I have it cued up to the right spot), who thinks we won't have that 80% drawdown anymore, and it just keeps going higher, which matches exactly what I've mentioned a couple of times now as well. This time, there is institutional money, and many people will likely jump at a 20% discount. Before you likely had huge whales selling, now, there might be less of these whales. The guys who sell when the on-chain metrics tell them to might realize after 6 months that it has only dropped 20% and going sideways. Now all of a sudden, you have these guys underexposed. Who wants to be sitting on $1m in fiat if bitcoin doesn't drop anymore? So the next cycle up might start after only a 20% drawdown. The guys then talk about M2 money supply. So Joe asks why Jeff thinks it will stop. And I think this is an excellent question. Lets not forget that at this point, the debt is even higher, and all governments are printing. There is no way they can now stop printing, so its just going to be continued printing until everything just breaks, and at that point, you for sure don't want to be underweight bitcoin. This year, they need a $2T deficit in order to keep the economy from imploding. How are they going to ween off this spending? The GDP isn't stellar... its just ok. And yet, this is with $2T in spending that the government doesn't have. There is no way they can pull back on the money supply. I think its possible that when the money printer is turned on again, it will never be turned off until it blows up. Wouldn't the worst scenario be for all the bitcoin OG's, who have gone through 3 cycles and think they are smart by getting out at "the top", learn this time that there is no top and this is the cycle that breaks all cycles? That this is the cycle where fiat dies? I know its an outlandish scenario, but I think its well within the realm of possibility.
**** no financial advice **** I saw that prediction from Dr. Jeff Ross and I also think bitcoin can hit $500k by the eoy 2025 I'm also on the camp of no more 75%+ drawdown from top to bottom for bitcoin going forward Especially now that Blackrock is marketing this as a new asset class that should be a part of the investment portfolio and the recent one being it can be as big as the real estate Blackrock might be setting up bitcoin as a new asset class security in the way they did with real estate as an asset class security (see British hodl video on why bitcoin is much better than real estate on this 1 year ago) Plus, the way Microstrategy has executed its bitcoin treasury adoption could open up the floodgates for other corporations with a lot of cash to do the same What's stopping Apple or Google to buy 100k bitcoin and put in their treasury when they are losing that much in inflation? (of course price of bitcoin would shoot up at the announcement, but...) Seriously Apple or Google can even issue 0.6% apr interest debt to buy the bitcoin All of this is to say I'm very bullish, and if I make enough profits on my mstr calls, should I even sell any bitcoin when it goes to $500k next year? (I probably would sell at least 1) Watching Scaramucci on youtube with Natalie Brunell and he's got over 55% of his net worth into bitcoin, it's crazy how much bitcoiners like us are deep into the cult
So how do you calculate this 2-3x NAV? I have NAV at 2.8B... From reddit: here's a scenario. MSTR starts as a software business worth $0 and with $0 in cash. it raises $10M in debt, so now it has $10M in cash. it then uses that cash to purchase $10M of Bitcoin. NAV = $10M BTC - $10M debt = $0. After 1 year, that $10M in Bitcoin has doubled in value and is now worth $20M in Bitcoin. But the debt is still only $10M. So now... NAV = $20M BTC - $10M debt = $10M Now, MSTR issues another $20M in debt, to get $20M in cash, that it uses to purchase another $20M Bitcoin. Now... NAV = $20M BTC (from before) + $20M BTC (newly bought) - $10M debt (from before) - $20M debt (newly acquired) = $10M After 1 more year, that $40M Bitcoin has doubled in value and is now worth $80M in Bitcoin. But the debt is still only $30M. So now... NAV = $80M BTC - $30M debt = $50M And so on...not only does the company keep increasing in value because the value of its Bitcoin keeps increasing, but it keeps being able to add MORE Bitcoin to the company, which increases in value, which allows more to be added, etc. As Bitcoin continues to increase in value, MSTR can issue more debt, buy more Bitcoin at a "today's value" that will grow over time to "tomorrow's value" that gives it power to issue more debt, raise more cash, buy more Bitcoin, rinse and repeat this cycle. SO. let's get to the most common question here. how can it trade at 2 or 3 times (or more!) its NAV? because enough people believe in the above process continuing to play out and work. leveraged growth. and this neglects any consideration for whatever the core actual business might at some point do with that amount of value / power, beyond its pure value of bitcoin holdings. there's just so much growth and power potential in their strategy, if it works. not financial advice.
It's a dynamic figure due to the bitcoin price moving 24/7 and the mstr shares only trading during market hours I'm too lazy to do it myself, but here's a good chart, and adjust the price of mstr and bitcoin accordingly
MicroStrategy owns 252,220 bitcoins as of Sept. 20, 2024. MicroStrategy states the average purchase price as $39,292.18 USD per bitcoin with a total cost of $9.91 billion USD. Net assets on the balance sheet as of June 2024 : $2.83 Billion USD. According to MicroStrategy's latest financial reports the company has $2.83 Billion USD in net assets. A company's net assets is the sum of its assets minus the sum of its liabilities. Ok so they hold 252k bitcoin @ 39k per coin. If bitcoin drops $11,230 their NAV will be 0. So roughly 54k price. 2.83B NAV/252k btc=$11,230 What happens if they fall into a negative NAV? Hey! Was these MSTR???
mstr becomes undervalued based on NAV/book value, it has happened in 2022/2023, there's no rule or law that says mstr cannot trade at 10x mNAV or less than 1
Ok but if they feel bitcoin is going to do a correction, would they not sell, thus causing even more of a correction so they can pay of debts and then buy back bitcoin cheaper, rinse, repeat? (2018) This means that during that 1-minute, $23 million USD worth of bullish trades increased total market value of Bitcoin by over $1 billion USD (.557% of $180.77 billion total value of all Bitcoins) So keeping the same % then selling 252k bitcoin should move the market 835B of 1.25T. .557% x 1.25T = 835B (with no counter buying to offset of course) medium.com/archieai/how-much-money-do-you-need-to-move-the-bitcoin-market-202f4316f277