MSTR as a defined-risk trade for asymmetric risk-reward

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by johnarb, Jun 16, 2024.

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  1. It wasn't for Jonarb! Man the level of hypocrisy around here. All the excitement generated over this simple iv ----- v leg that I had charted in over a month ago if you bother to look. Yes that's right, I had iv charted in long before price reached it.

    upload_2024-10-13_3-32-28.png


    AND if everyone is so gung-ho about the market going up, and that there is some correlation to bitcoin...bitcoin doesn't follow the market.

    upload_2024-10-13_3-49-22.png





    If we continue the same (shrinking) trend for past corrections.


    2018-2020
    upload_2024-10-13_4-0-10.png


    2022-2023
    upload_2024-10-13_4-0-25.png


    2024--->
    upload_2024-10-13_4-0-47.png
     
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2024
    #171     Oct 13, 2024
  2. johnarb

    johnarb

    not financial advise, for entertainment purposes only

    some people made generational wealth on this, not me, lol, got in too late

    upload_2024-10-13_22-24-38.png


     
    #172     Oct 13, 2024
  3. LOL!

    "Murad Mahmudov is a crypto trader that founded Adaptive Capital and was formerly the chief information officer. The crypto hedge fund went bankrupt in March 2020. Since then, he was able to amass a large following on X, building his social media presence on advocating about meme coins"


    Let's do the math anyway on one of the examples mentioned:

    • If you bought 100k of xvg in 2020 for .004 = 25M xvg. At the peak last pump was .08 so you pnl was 1.9M
    • If you bought bitcoin instead with the 100k in 2020 it was $4178 so you would have 21 btc. The last pump bitcoin hit 70k so you would have pnl 1.3M

    So there is barely an advantage to trading memes because you are taking way more risk. Memes are popular because they are cheap, but in reality they do not outperform bitcoin on a large scale.

    It really isn't hard to know what the meme market, or alt coins will do if you can just remember the little phrase, "a rising tide lifts all boats". :)
     
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2024
    #173     Oct 13, 2024
  4. NoahA

    NoahA

    Oh, the only reason why I picked that was because I saw the option chain only went to 390, and I wanted to go for something conservative that had a very good chance of not going to zero.

    I think what I may want to do, at least for a few options, is buy them on any plunges below $200. I will start watching to see what happens to the option prices, and if I can pick up something cheap, I might go for the lottery ticket!
     
    #174     Oct 13, 2024
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  5. johnarb

    johnarb

    I heard on a video or it may have been the mstr twitter spaces yesterday that many of the mstr investors/traders are calling the cboe to ask for even higher strike prices

    ETrade is showing the Sept 2025 all the way to 420

    I think as you said, the 6-month sideways has made you doubt this bull market cycle, but if you remember last year, you also doubted we'll break previous ath $70k and the year before that in 2022 when bitcoin was stuck below $20k, you had doubts we'll ever have another bull market cycle in the same schedule

    Bitcoin does that. It takes patience. Hodling is not easy. People think bitcoin is a get rich quick scheme, but when you're holding it and waiting for ngu, it feels like an eternity

    I'll be honest, $62k is awesome. Anything above $50k

    But getting back to mstr, you should watch the Sept $300c or the Sept $400c mark the price now and see how it goes for the next month

    Next Friday is options expiration for Oct, it will be interesting if mstr closes at the high again
     
    #175     Oct 13, 2024
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  6. NoahA

    NoahA

    Yup, this was the worst, and I hardly got any below 20k to be honest, so that completely sucked. At the time if I recall, everyone was calling for 10k, which made sense, and so I was just waiting. I didn't have any leverage, so that was good, but it sucked to not have been aware enough of the cycles and on-chain metrics that people are using to evaluate where we are in the cycle.

    I will absolutely be watching this, and likely get in on some dips. Waiting for 80k confirmation in my opinion is the worst thing to do. From my regular trading, I see that its critical to be buying on lows, not after breakouts. And because my MSTR is going to be a small holding compared to BTC in cold storage and in the ETFs, I think its more important to get a better price rather than waiting for confirmation.
     
    #176     Oct 13, 2024
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  7. johnarb

    johnarb

    If bitcoin bull market gets heated up, I can see 420.69 for mstr by end of Uptober


    upload_2024-10-14_18-41-16.png
     
    #177     Oct 14, 2024
    NoahA and TrailerParkTed like this.
  8. AND $60 for MSTY...but it will all depend what happens at 70k. If we don't launch from there I'll see ya all in the low 50's. :)

    upload_2024-10-14_4-2-18.png

    I mean this could correction could drag on till March, which I think at that point hopium will be stamped out. Everyone is too optimistic right now, and as mentioned only 16% of hodlrs are underwater right now on chain exposed. BUT the fact that late October last year was the beginning of the epic rally to 70k is not lost me.

    upload_2024-10-14_4-5-16.png
     
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2024
    #178     Oct 14, 2024
  9. I was wondering where we would open today. I guess it’s not relevant if we are going to $500 :)
     
    #179     Oct 14, 2024
    johnarb likes this.
  10. Yes it is irrelevant...not because we are going to $500 but because daily open price means absolutely NOTHING. What matters is what happens at the end of this extension. These are the metrics you guys use?
     
    #180     Oct 14, 2024
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